SA’s premier research & development organisation, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), is predicting huge drops in support for the country’s two biggest political parties: the ANC and DA, signalling that some metros could still be run by coalitions just as they were five years ago.
In an update issued at 6.24am on Tuesday, the CSIR projects the ANC to achieve 46.8% of the vote, down from 54.5% it achieved in the 2016 municipal elections and 55.7% registered during the national election in 2019.
The official opposition, the DA, is projected to win 23.6% of the vote. It won 21.9% in 2019 and 27% in 2016.
The EFF, which emerged as kingmakers in some of the crucial metros in 2016 when it won 8.2% of the vote, which grew to 11.4% in 2019, is projected to get up to 10% in this election, which has been characterised by a low voter turnout countrywide, reflecting voters’ disillusionment with politics and politicians who preside over poor service delivery.
After a total of 26,333,213 voters were registered in 2016, 26,204,579 were registered to vote on November 1 this year.
At 7pm on Monday the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) said that with two hours to go only 30% of those eligible had voted. This was way off the 54% recorded in the previous municipal elections in 2016.
The turnout in SA’s economic hub of Gauteng, where 6.1-million people had registered to vote during the 2021 municipal elections held on Monday, was 45%, down from the 57% of 2016.
In Gauteng, the CSIR projects the ANC to get 36.2% of the vote (46.1% in 2016 and 50.2% in 2019), DA 33.7% (37.2% in 2016, 27.4% in 2019), and EFF 12.5% (11.3% in 2016 and 14.7% in 2019). Political start-up ActionSA, led by former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, is projected to get 5.4% of the vote in the province, and Freedom Front Plus (VFPlus) 4.9%.
This means the future of Gauteng’s crucial metros of Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni could be decided by coalitions as they were in 2016.
In the DA-run Western Cape, which registered a voter turnout of 51%, down from 62% in 2016, the DA is expected to retain control of the province with a projected 61%, up from the 55.4% achieved in 2019, but down from the 63.6% registered in 2016.
The governing ANC, which is the official opposition in the Western Cape, is projected to get 22% of the votes, down from the 26.5% and 28.6% registered in 2016 and 2019 respectively.
Public works and infrastructure minister Patricia de Lille’s GOOD party and the FFPlus are projected to get 3.8% and 4.1% of the vote, respectively, in the Western Cape.
It was not all doom and gloom for the ANC, however, with the former liberation party expected to retain control of the North West, with a projected 57.7% (59.3% in 2016 and 61.9% in 2019); Limpopo 69.6% (69.4% in 2016, 75.5% in 2019); Mpumalanga 60.3% (71% in 2016, 70.6% in 2019); Eastern Cape 64.3% (65.9% in 2016, 68.7% in 2019), and Free State 52.8% (61.9% in 2016 and 61.1% in 2019).
The ANC, however, could find itself in trouble in the hotly-contested KwaZulu-Natal, where the DA and IFP have been making serious inroads. In the ANC-run KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC is projected to get 44.3%, IFP 24.2%, DA 15.5% and EFF 7.4%.
In Northern Cape, the CSIR’s projections are that the ANC would get 48.97%, DA 19.4%, EFF 10% and FFPlus 4.1%.
Should the ANC slip below 50% or the DA 20%, their fortunes for the 2024 national election will be significantly reduced.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.