The DA cannot afford to be complacent about its resounding win in the Cape Town metropole, which was based not only on its ongoing support among the white and coloured voters but also on the dismal performance of the ANC.
The DA win of about 59.2% with 96% of the vote counted was significantly lower compared with 66.8% in the 2016 local government election, while the ANC’s support plunged to 17.6% from the previous 24.5%. Other smaller parties snatched the remainder, with the EFF at 3.93% and GOOD at 3.89% of the vote.
The ANC suffered from the lower overall turnout estimated at about 49% compared with the 63% of 2016. This helped the DA, which has always been able to rely on the solid turnout of its supporters whatever the weather conditions.
But the DA has no room for complacency and will have to deliver on the pre-election commitments made by the city’s new mayor, Geordin Hill-Lewis, to do more in terms of service delivery, especially for coloured and black communities who feel neglected and left behind.
The DA’s support among black voters has been small though it did win 12% of the vote in Langa, as well as a ward off the ANC in Somerset West and some wards in other traditional ANC strongholds.
“I put a clear offer to the city of some pretty ambitious change, refreshment, new ideas and new energy in the city administration,” Hill-Lewis said in an interview. “This was strongly endorsed and I have now got to make good on that and make sure that there is real change, real fresh energy, and that that ambitious agenda is pursued with vigour. Part of that is making sure that there is proper infrastructure, proper basic services in the poorest parts of the city. Every person must feel the difference that a DA government makes in their lives.”
Institute for Global Dialogue senior research associate Sanusha Naidu warned of the danger of the DA becoming smug when its share of the vote had declined sharply since 2016. She emphasised the need for the DA to deliver services if it was to hold on to power and avoid the fate of the ANC in eThekwini.
Smaller parties like GOOD, EFF, the Cape Coloured Congress, African Christian Democratic Party, Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus), Patriotic Alliance and Al Jama-ah, together with other parties with less than 1% of the vote, nibbled away at the support for both the DA and ANC.
As political analyst Daniel Silke notes, there has been a growth in support of smaller parties in the coloured community, the largest in Cape Town and the Western Cape.
“Under the poor national circumstances for the DA, the party did remarkably well in the city of Cape Town. The party was also able to fend off the rising dissatisfaction among some of their support base particularly on the Cape Flats.” He attributed the decline in the DA’s result largely to the shedding of coloured voters and of some conservative white voters in the northern suburbs to the FF Plus and other small parties.
“The DA managed to hold on to the coloured vote but there are warning lights flashing, namely that it is shedding votes within the coloured community,” Silke said. “If that continues at its current pace or even increases over the next few years the overall DA control of the city of Cape Town will be a lot more in question.”
The result for the Western Cape as a whole also shows the impact of small, local parties. The DA won 54.2% of the provincial vote compared with 63.6% in 2016 and the ANC 20.4% (26.5%) on a lower turnout which attested to the extent of voter apathy. GOOD got 4.31% of the vote.
The DA was the only party to win outright majorities, which it did in nine municipalities, and is likely to also win control of four district municipalities, the composition of which will only be determined later. Sixteen councils will be hung with smaller parties assuming the role of kingmakers.
The DA lost the outright majority control of about six municipalities that it won outright in 2016, but many of these had already become governed by coalitions by 2021 as a result of by-elections.
Despite the inroads by smaller parties, the DA believes it has stabilised the downward trajectory of its support in the province compared with the 2019 provincial elections, when it only won 55.4% of the vote — a sharp decline from the 2016 result — and the ANC 28.6%.
DA provincial chair Jaco Londt said he was “extremely happy that we have stopped the decline in many places and even turned the corner in some areas. Now we are going to build towards 2024 (the next national general election), making sure that we retain this province.”
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