President Cyril Ramaphosa and his Guinea-Bissau counterpart, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, have said that swift action against unconstitutional changes in government means the number of coups in Africa will decline.
Speaking at a media conference at the Union Buildings during his state visit on Thursday, Embaló played down an apparent attempt to overthrow him as recently as February. He said an intervention by troops from other countries in the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), such as Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana and Ivory Coast, would “make the military understand we can’t change the [government unconstitutionally]”.
In the past 16 years, his country has experienced two coups, a civil war and an attempted coup, and one president was assassinated by the military. In the adjacent Guinea, soldiers overthrew president Alpha Condé in September 2021, while Mali has suffered two coups in the previous two years. Burkina Faso experienced a coup in January.
Ramaphosa said the continent could learn from the way Ecowas intervened in the matter. “The determination [and] the decisiveness of the leadership in Ecowas is something that stands as a very good example for the rest of the continent.” The deployment of troops by the region was “another phase” in the way they dealt with the phenomenon. “They are, as a region, going to be deploying troops that are ready at any given time to deal with those that want to perpetrate acts of violence and attempted coups.”
The AU has a policy of summarily suspending any country that has experienced an unconstitutional change of government, though there has been some criticism that this policy isn’t applied evenly, as in the case of Chad and Zimbabwe. Still, Ramaphosa said the AU’s strong stance on the matter “sends a very important and strong message on this for those who tolerate coups that they have no place to hide, and action will be taken against them”.
The deepening security crisis in the region, in the form of increased terrorist activity, was also on the agenda of talks between the two leaders. The visit gave them an opportunity to discuss common positions to champion at the AU summit on terrorism and violent extremism planned for May 28 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, Ramaphosa said.
He also emphasised the prosperity brought about by increased trade and economic activity as a more lasting solution to some of the continent’s problems. Agriculture and infrastructure provide opportunities for SA businesses in Guinea-Bissau.
Professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham, Nicolas Cheeseman, said geopolitics means Africa might yet see a lot more problems. “The war in Ukraine is forcing up fuel and food prices and that spells political instability,” he told Business Day. “One consequence of that could be coups, as military leaders take advantage of popular unrest to make a power grab.”
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