The ANC is said to be likely to discuss and adopt the “same old” policy positions at its December national elective conference, except for new proposals from alliance partners such as a basic income grant (BIG).
Political and economic pundits say the party, battling a trust deficit and falling voter support, will probably debate policy proposals on issues dealing with land, national health insurance, the Reserve Bank (SARB), economic growth and corruption. These issues were discussed at its previous national conference at Nasrec in December 2017.
This observation comes as surveys and analysts indicate the ANC, dogged by financial, administrative and operational issues, could lose its majority in the 2024 general election and be forced into a coalition to stay in power.
The party suffered its worst electoral performance in the 2021 municipal elections, when its support fell below 50% for the first time since 1994. This resulted in the ANC losing the Gauteng metros of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane to DA-led multiparty coalitions. DA councillor Tania Campbell was ousted as Ekurhuleni executive mayor in a vote of no-confidence on Wednesday last week.
Political analysts said this week they did not expect any new policy proposals from the ANC, suggesting the party had run out of ideas. Most of them were discussed in detail before and very little was implemented.
“It is just going to be more of the same old issues of dealing with poverty, inequality, unemployment, [but] we know they are not capable [of implementing those policies],” said Stellenbosch University political analyst Professor Amanda Gouws.
“It has become rhetoric. However, we expect them to discuss pressing issues such as GBV [gender-based violence], the fixing of SOEs [state-owned enterprises]. They are so factionalised and deeply divided — it’s about the politics of power rather than the policy direction SA should take.”
Unisa political analyst professor Lesiba Teffo said he expected nothing new from the ANC in terms of policy direction. “What else can they say other than what they have said before, and after saying what they would have said, what are they going to do with them [policies]?
“What needs to be done is to stop and take stock of all the policy positions they have taken in previous conferences,” said Teffo. “In this coming congress, the language and phrasing will be different, but the substance the same. They are weak when it comes to implementation.”
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga said the ANC was sidetracked by factional battles in its quest to address crises such as load-shedding, which has cost the economy billions.
“The policy issue has become almost a proxy issue instead of a primary issue that defines the conference. They are hell-bent on factionalism. You ask yourself: ‘Suppose there were no factions, are there good policy ideas that would come from them?’ No, zero,” said Mathekga.
Economics professor Raymond Parsons of North West University Business School said good economics in SA “needs good politics from the December elective conference. But expectations as to what might be achieved on the economic front must be tempered, given the ANC’s internal party tensions — and uncertainty will inevitably be elevated until then.”
Parsons said that what investors and business may hope to see emerge from the conference “is whether some of the more controversial economic recommendations from the recent ANC policy conference are accepted or not by the December meeting”.
“These include issues such as the nationalisation of the Reserve Bank, the broadening of the Sarb’s anti-inflation mandate to include job creation, the establishment of a state bank, and debate on property rights. The wrong decisions here will affect the investment climate and undermine the prospects for job-rich growth as outlined in last week’s 2022 medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS),” Parsons said.
“It is therefore a question of how much economic pragmatism will prevail at the elective conference in shaping the way ahead for SA’s political economy as a whole. Strategic leadership will be needed to strike the right balance between aspirational goals and economic realities at a time of great economic distress.”
Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine said: “There is one big new thing since the last ANC conference [in 2017] that has seemingly become a policy issue for the ANC, and that is the basic income grant (BIG). That is going to be a source of huge discussion.”
Jammine said that if about 14-million adults each got R1,000 as a BIG each month, that would translate to each person bagging R12,000 a year, which meant R480bn on a continuous basis for the government. If the BIG was introduced it could lead to tax hikes that could “cripple economic activity” as the rand would crash and interest rates soar.
But Jammine said the R350 social relief of distress (SRD) grant, extended until March 2024, was the affordable option “given the government’s revenue overrun of R83bn”.
Another likely big debate was the public sector wage bill “under pressure at the moment” as Cosatu’s large unions including the National Education, Health and Allied Workers Union (Nehawu) have declared a dispute at the public service co-ordinating bargaining council (PSCBC) over their demand for a 10% increase.
The National Treasury pencilled in government’s 3% wage offer into the MTBPS last week, to the chagrin of unions who accused the employer of negotiating in bad faith. Parties failed to find each other in conciliation talks at the PSCBC on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, strike certificates were issued to the Democratic Nursing Organisation of SA (Denosa), Nehawau, Police and Prisons Civil Rights Union (Popcru), and Health & Other Services Personnel Trade Union of SA (Hospersa).
Jammine said the pay issue was likely to cause “a lot of tension between Cosatu and the ANC”, which with the SA Communist Party (SACP) make up the governing tripartite alliance.
Nehawu is among the Cosatu unions calling on the labour federation to dump the ANC and support the SACP during elections in 2024.
The ANC has been accused of failing to implement its policies in government due to a lack of capacity, malfeasance, maladministration and corruption linked to the cadre deployment policy which the party used to help hasten transformation and implement its policies in government.
The state-capture commission found that the deployment policy was unconstitutional and illegal, leading to the cabinet approving, about two weeks ago, the national framework for professionalisation, which replaces cadre deployment with merit-based appointments throughout the public sector.
At its national congress at Nasrec in December 2017, where President Cyril Ramaphosa was elected ANC leader, the party resolved to accelerate economic growth and create jobs; pursue land expropriation without compensation; speed up service delivery; and root out corruption in the public and private sectors.
Some ANC leaders accuse the party, rocked by factionalism and the suspension of secretary-general Ace Magashule, of failing to implement some of these decisions. Former presidents Thabo Mbeki, Kgalema Motlanthe and Jacob Zuma have criticised Ramaphosa’s leadership.
In July, Mbeki publicly berated Ramaphosa for failing to keep his promises to tackle unemployment, inequality and poverty, which Mbeki said had increased the risk of social unrest in SA.
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