Another survey has found that the ANC’s electoral support will fall below 50% in the the 2024 general election. Those polled cited high unemployment and corruption among key socioeconomic issues affecting the country.
ANC electoral support has been dwindling for years. Political pundits expect the situation to worsen in 2024. Many predict that the party could cling to power if supported by a coalition partner.
The Brenthurst Foundation, a Johannesburg-based think-tank established by the influential Oppenheimer family, conducted in-depth interviews with a random sample of registered voters from October 27 to November 10 2004.
Its findings seemed to be in line with recent ones from an Ipsos poll, commissioned by political think-tank Rivonia Circle, which showed the party dropping to 41% of the vote from the 26-million registered voters in SA.
It found that ANC support at the election would fall from the 57.7% during the 2019 general election to 47.6% in 2024. Most of those polled believed the country was going in the wrong direction.
The survey was conducted nationally among 1,000 respondents of all races nationally, who were quizzed telephonically in 15-minute sessions.
According to the survey, 76.9% of respondents indicated they would “definitely vote” in 2024, while 11.9% were uncertain, 5% fairly certain, 4.9% probably not and 1.3% definitely not.
The results of this survey clearly show that South Africans are ready for change.
A sizeable 47.6% said they would vote for the ANC, 24% for the DA, 10.7% for the EFF, 4.1% for IFP, 4% for ActionSA and 1.3% for FF+.
In the poll, 66% of ANC voters felt SA is going in the wrong direction, with 30% of those polled citing unemployment as the biggest problem in SA. The country is battling an unemployment rate of 33.9%. Others cited corruption (24.9%), load-shedding (16.8%), crime (10.7%), weak leadership (8.5%) and a failed political system (3.8%).
Altogether 51.5% blamed the ANC government of the past three decades for the problems facing the country, while 8.8% blamed apartheid, 8.6% the constitution, 7.4% racists and 3.3% the BEE elite.
On coalitions, which analysts have criticised for being unstable, shrouded in secrecy and focused more on staying in power than addressing service delivery, 78.6% of respondents said they would be happy to see a coalition of political parties governing SA after the 2024 elections.
While 19.3% of those polled said no to coalitions, 22.8% said they would favour a coalition of parties excluding the ANC. The poll showed 21.1% in favour of a DA-EFF coalition, while 18.7% were in favour of the ANC getting into bed with the EFF.
“The results of this survey clearly show that South Africans are ready for change. They place the blame for what they cite as their major problems — joblessness, corruption and load-shedding — squarely on the shoulders of the ANC government of the last three decades,” said foundation director Greg Mills.
“While more will vote for the ANC than any other party, it is revealing that the vast majority want to see a coalition governing SA. They see the country in crisis and want leaders to work together to fix it.
“SA is on the cusp of change, but it is up to political leaders to listen to voters and start working on ways to fix the country. The parties that deliver real results on the ground will succeed,” Mills said.
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