The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the past 20, causing renewables to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation.
In its latest report on the renewable energy sector, the International Energy Agency says that energy security concern caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have motivated countries to turn increasingly to renewables such as solar and wind to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, whose prices have spiked dramatically.
“Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth as countries seek to capitalise on their energy security benefits,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
This huge expected increase is 30% higher than the growth forecast just a year ago, highlighting how quickly governments have thrown additional policy weight behind renewables. The report says that renewables are set to account for more than 90% of global electricity expansion over the next five years, overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity by early 2025.
Renewable power capacity added in Europe in 2022-2027 is forecast to be twice as high as in the previous five-year period, driven by a combination of energy security concern and climate ambitions, according to the report.
Beyond Europe, the upward revision in renewable power growth for the next five years is also driven by China, the US and India, which are all implementing policies and introducing regulatory and market reforms quicker than previously planned to combat the energy crisis.
Already operational
SA will also see an acceleration in the rollout of new renewable energy projects as independent power producers seek to benefit from liberalisation in the energy market and the gap in energy supply that will be created as Eskom proceeds with the decommissioning of old coal-fired power stations.
Santosh Sookgrim, senior technical adviser at the SA Wind Energy Association, said 34 wind energy projects amounting to 3.4GW are already operational in SA. A further 1.6GW will be procured in bid window 5 of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) and potentially another 11GW that is expected to be procured through the REIPPPP over the next eight years.
“Having recently surveyed the industry we have realised that there is a notable amount of wind projects being developed. Given the budding private offtake market and the introduction of the green hydrogen economy, research has indicated the need for an additional 80GW of wind energy over the long term,” Sookgrim said.
Existing installed and operational capacity for solar power is about 4.9GW. This, according to Rethabile Melamu, CEO of the SA Photovoltaic Industry Association (Sapvia), includes REIPPPP projects (2.2GW), large-scale private generation (1.2GW), as well as smaller-scale commercial and domestic systems (1.5GW).
The installed capacity is projected to grow 7GW to 10GW in the next five years, with most of the projects (about 55%) coming from large-scale private projects either via on-site generation or via wheeling.
Wind and solar together are expected to add up to 31GW of power to the grid over the next five to eight years, about half of the 50,000MW and 60,000MW of variable generation capacity that Eskom hopes to connect to the grid by 2030.
SA could be adding more renewables were it not for grid constraints.
“The number one regulatory and physical roadblock preventing large-scale renewable energy rollout is transmission grid access and capacity constraints in high-yield areas. Clear, transparent and enforceable grid access and queuing regulations need to be established to enable fair and equitable grid access for renewable projects,” said Melamu.
Eskom indicated previously that it needs to build about 8,000km of new transmission lines by 2030 at an estimated cost of R130bn.
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