The country faces a defining moment this week in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s first state of the nation address (Sona) since being re-elected ANC president, alongside a potential cabinet reshuffle, both of which could set SA on a much-needed alternative path.
By Sunday evening, it was still anyone’s guess if he would reshuffle the national executive before the Sona on Thursday — two major milestones in the political calendar that will also ultimately shape his legacy and affect the fate of the ANC in the 2024 general elections.
Several cabinet ministers and ANC leaders sat by their phones at the weekend, waiting for serious consultations to begin on a cabinet shake-up, but all those Business Day had spoken to by late Sunday said they had not received a call yet.
Reshuffling the cabinet “is a priority for the president but there are still two schools of thought, one being that he reshuffle this week before Sona and the other that he wait until after the Sona. When I spoke to him on Friday, he said he was still leaning towards the latter,” a source close to Ramaphosa said.
One ANC leader said: “We usually get a call in the late afternoon to come through and consultations continue through the night. We are all waiting.”
With Ramaphosa also expected to consult the tripartite alliance, an SA Communist Party leader said “a third option could be that the president just fill vacancies, because he does not want to fire everyone”.
National interest
Constitutionally, appointments to the national executive are the sole prerogative of the president but, through a clearly explained process and record, Ramaphosa’s decisions have to be rational and put the national interest before all else.
ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile is expected to be sworn in as MP on Monday, as speculation has heightened that he will soon become Ramaphosa’s second-in-command in government.
The ANC has four vacancies in the National Assembly, and may have another one, as deputy president David Mabuza could resign as an MP. Mabuza on Saturday indicated that he would step down from his role as deputy president. But the presidency confirmed on Sunday that it had not yet been accepted.
While Ramaphosa is permitted to appoint a maximum of two ministers from outside parliament, the constitution requires that the deputy president be drawn from parliament.
Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, said: “Deputy president Mabuza has expressed his desire to step down from his position, after the outcome of the governing party’s leadership elections in December 2022. However, President Ramaphosa has requested the deputy president to remain in his role until the modalities of his departure and transition have been finalised.”
With the country facing the worst load-shedding since blackouts began in 2008, some opposition politicians have called for a national march over the challenges dogging the country and for Ramaphosa to resign. Others have gone to court to ask that Ramaphosa provide a record of his interventions in the power crisis.
Business Unity SA (Busa) weighed in on Friday, calling on Ramaphosa to split the mineral resources & energy department, arguing that considerable knowledge is required to solve SA’s power challenges.
In a letter to Ramaphosa dated January 24, Busa said: “Many investors simply don’t believe our [SA’s] plans.”
Energy minister
This further confirmed a Business Day story in January that Ramaphosa was considering removing Gwede Mantashe as energy minister after high-level consultations with business over load-shedding, Since then, however, Mantashe has been fighting back, with ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula coming out in his defence.
Another burning issue as Ramaphosa delivers the Sona is whether he will announce a ring-fenced state of disaster over Eskom, a proposal he rejected last year when he announced his energy plan.
That may cause another conundrum for Ramaphosa if he intends to fire co-operative governance minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, because she led ministerial efforts to legislate and legalise the Covid lockdown during that state of disaster.
“We know the reshuffle is imminent but what is its significance in the context of the crisis of the state?” asked political analyst Sanusha Naidu.
She also said the upcoming reshuffle should demonstrate the party is ready to shed its image as a procrastinor.
Nelson Mandela University political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast said that Ramaphosa had had a “very complicated term of office.
“He has not achieved his intended objectives, the economy has been mismanaged, and this guy was a deputy president at some point and he chaired Eskom’s war room [to address the energy crisis], so he needs to take responsibility for some of the problems his administration inherited,” Breakfast said.
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