Trade relations between the US and SA hang in the balance, with Washington accusing SA of aiding Russia’s war effort in the year-long conflict with Ukraine.
The failure of a recent diplomatic mission to resolve the growing impasse over SA’s seemingly pro-Russia stance could harm bilateral trade between the two countries worth about R400bn. SA benefits from the lucrative Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which provides preferential access to US markets.
One of the conditions of trade with the US is that its trade partners should not engage in activities that harm Washington’s national security interest, says Washington’s ambassador to SA, Reuben E Brigety II.
Talks between the two countries to resolve an impasse over Pretoria’s stance on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have come to naught, forcing the government to go back to the drawing board to avoid further souring trade relations.
This followed a meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa’s national security adviser, Sydney Mufamadi, and US president Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, in April to allay Washington’s concerns over SA’s stance on the war in Ukraine.
Citing the alleged mismatch between the SA government’s stated position on the conflict and its actions, as well as the ANC’s “hostility” towards the US, Brigety said on Thursday the impasse has not been resolved because SA has demonstrated material support for Russia.
This has cast aside SA’s non-aligned stance on the conflict, the ambassador said.
“Among the things we noted was the docking of the Russian cargo ship in Simon’s Town between December 6 and 8 which we are convinced uploaded weapons and ammunitions on to that vessel to Simon’s Town as it made its way back to Russia,” Brigety told reporters.
SA has faced heavy criticism over its seemingly pro-Russia foreign policy stance. This follows its repeated refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at world forums, as well as a joint naval exercise off the KwaZulu-Natal coast in February and the docking of a Russian cargo vessel in Simon’s Town Naval Base carrying unknown cargo in December.
On April 24, a military aircraft owned by a Russian company under sanctions landed at the Waterkloof Air Force Base in the dead of night, raising eyebrows.
The US ambassador has accused SA of providing material support to Russia by allowing the Russian vessel, Lady R, to dock at Simon’s Town. Although the US has a range of penalties in its arsenal that it may impose, including rolling back aid to SA for allegedly violating international law, Brigety says the US is still open to dialogue with Pretoria over the matter.
The presidency was unable to deny the allegations last night.
But Ramaphosa said in a statement on Thursday: “It is public knowledge that a Russian vessel known as Lady R docked in SA. Allegations have since been made about the purpose of the voyage. While no evidence has been provided to date to support these allegations, the government has undertaken to institute an independent inquiry to be led by a retired judge.”
“It is therefore disappointing that the US ambassador has adopted a counterproductive public posture that undermines the understanding reached on the matter and the very positive and constructive engagements between the two delegations,” Ramaphosa said.
Earlier in the day, the president told parliament, in response to questions from DA leader John Steenhuisen, for the first time that the government is to investigate the matter.
“We are all aware of the news of Lady R and that whole matter is being looked into. It’s being looked into and while the process continues I want you to allow that process to continue to reach its fruition. The matter is being looked into and in time we will be able to speak about it,” Ramaphosa said.
Ukraine’s ambassador to SA, Liubov Abravitova, told Business Day she will request an urgent meeting with defence & military veterans minister Thandi Modise on the issue.
After its ordinary strategy meeting in April, the ANC national executive committee (NEC), the governing party’s highest decision-making body, said it was concerned about the rise in unilateralism in global geopolitics where “the West [is] threatening to violate international law and sidestepping international consensus in order to impose its will”.
Any negative shift in trade relations between the US and SA would have a devastating effect on the local economy as the country battles the electricity crisis, which is hampering growth prospects.
SA qualifies for preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which permits SA to export more than 7,000 goods to the US duty-free.
The trade agreement is up for renewal in 2025, but SA’s stance on the eastern European conflict has raised fears among market watchers that SA could be excluded from the deal.
Government sources told Business Day the Agoa summit, which was originally scheduled to be held in September, is now likely to be held in November with a venue yet to be decided.
This is to avoid the possibility of the summit being held close to the Brics summit where there is still uncertainty around the attendance of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been issued a warrant of arrest by the International Criminal Court. The warrant means SA would be compelled, as a signatory to the Rome Statute behind the court, to arrest Putin on arrival.
Monitoring
Brigety said the US will be “closely monitoring” the Brics summit. According to international relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor, it will be considering the feasibility of a common Brics currency as an alternative to the dollar.
The Brics bloc comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA and the 2023 summit will be held in Johannesburg in August.
Trade economist Tinashe Kapuya says it would not be in US’ interests to break trade ties with SA considering that Pretoria is its biggest trade partner in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“It would not be a good decision for the US to take a harsh stance against SA especially since SA is the host country of the Agoa forum.
“The US would not want to lose diplomatic space in Africa to either Russia or China. They are not going to act quickly because if you take out SA in the Sub-Saharan Africa trade agreement you have [taken out] your biggest trade partner in the region,” Kapuya says.
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