The DA, SA’s second-largest political party, retained four seats during 10 municipal ward by-elections held across four provinces on Wednesday.
The by-elections affected 99,711 registered voters in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and the Western Cape. The DA received 10,543 votes (33%), followed by the ANC with 8,403 votes, which translated into 26.3% of voter support and winning two wards. The IFP received 5,005 votes (15.67%, three wards).
A total of 32,194 votes were cast, with valid votes accounting for 31,947 and spoilt votes 247. The by-elections were contested by five independent candidates and 54 candidates from 18 political parties.
By-elections are a litmus test of the mood of the electorate and take place if a representative’s seat becomes vacant in between the local government elections, which happen every five years.
In Gauteng, the DA retained its seat in Tshwane’s ward 83 (which comprises Erasmuskloof, Erasmus Park and parts of Moreleta Park and Newlands) with 72.02% of the total votes cast and voter turnout of 22.79%. In Johannesburg’s ward 7 (Ennerdale), the Patriotic Alliance won a seat that was held by the ANC, with 46.81% (3,233 votes) and voter turnout was 33.86%.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the DA retained the seat it won in eThekwini municipality’s ward 11 during the 2021 municipal elections with 57.11%. Voter turnout was 25.91%. At iNkosi Langalibalele municipality’s ward 5, the IFP retained its seat with 40.9% of the vote, and voter turnout was 48.27%. In ward 14 of the same municipality, however, the ANC snatched a seat previously held by the IFP with 54.89% of votes cast, with voter turnout accounting 56.09%.
In ward 21 of the same municipality, the IFP retained its seat with 55.72%, with voter turnout of 64.24%. In Alfred Duma municipality’s ward 29, the IFP retained its seat with 52.79% and voter turnout was 61.75%.
In Mpumalanga, the DA retained its seat at Steve Tshwete municipality’s ward 14 with 96.58% of the total votes cast, with voter turnout at 27.46%. In Mkhondo municipality’s ward 12, the ANC retained its seat with 66.58%, while voter turnout was 37.06%.
In the Western Cape, the DA retained its seat in Cape Town municipality’s ward 107 with 94.07% and voter turnout was 21.39%.
The EFF, the country’s third-largest political party, received 66 votes in Tshwane, translating to 1.99%, and in Johannesburg it received 583 votes (8.44%).
In Mpumalanga’s Mkhondo municipality, the red berets received 224 votes (19.75%) and zero votes in the Steve Tshwete local municipality.
In KwaZulu-Natal’s Alfred Duma municipality, the EFF received 1.21% (35 votes), eThekwini 224 votes (4.37%), and at iNkosi Langalibalele 109 votes (1.49%). In Cape Town, the red berets mustered 68 votes (1.57%).
Nelson Mandela University political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast said: “There are two sources of political power: first it’s the rural section of the population, and the second source are urban centres. The support base of ANC is still intact because of the relationship the ruling party has with traditional leaders.
“We must be very careful of what we make of this [by-election outcome], and not be too excited and misinterpret what these findings are. They don’t represent the entire country.”
Breakfast said the political spectrum at the moment is fragmented. “The danger of ushering in a lot of political parties is that they fragment the political spectrum, divide votes, and in so doing give ANC the upper hand.”
Several polls including by the ANC itself suggest the party’s electoral support could fall below 50% in the provincial and national elections in 2024.
“My concern is the possible lower voter turnout because of a slow pace of service delivery, but it’s not quite clear whether the ANC will fall below 50%, or whether it will bounce back to the helm of power,” Breakfast said.
“We can’t overplay the outcome of this electoral process. I don’t think the outcome is that significant, but it’s important either way.”
Elections expert Wayne Sussman disagreed, describing the results across the board as “very interesting”. He described the by-election results in Johannesburg as “very significant”, saying: “Not only did the ANC lose a ward, it lost its stronghold and that should worry the ANC greatly”.
“The results are significant, it makes the elections next year even more interesting.”
Sussman noted that the ANC achieved good results in Mpumalanga and northern KwaZulu-Natal where it had been fending off stiff competition for votes from the IFP.
“The only party that struggled yesterday [Wednesday] was the EFF. I think the EFF won’t be happy with the results in Mpumalanga; they lost ground. But let’s watch the EFF in the next round, there are by-elections coming up in Rustenburg.”
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