The improvements Eskom has achieved in generation performance, which has resulted in fewer and lower stages of load-shedding, are now being sustained for prolonged periods.
This shows Eskom and the government’s interventions to address the crisis are starting to bear fruit, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said.
Addressing the media on Sunday, he said SA experienced 75 days of load-shedding in 2021. This increased to 205 days in 2022, and the country was now on track for a record number of load-shedding days for 2023 “unless we do something dramatic to improve Eskom’s generation performance”.
But, he said, their efforts are “beginning to show results”.
Marginal improvements in Eskom’s electricity supply performance achieved in the first months after Ramokgopa’s appointment in March are now starting to turn into “real, maintained improvements”.
‘Positive changes’
“We are seeing a number of positive changes. The generation capacity available is beginning to plateau at 29,000MW.”
With about 46,000MW of total installed generation capacity this would indicate an energy availability factor (EAF) — a measure of electricity output as a share of total installed generation capacity — of about 60%. This is after the energy availability factor fell to historic lows of below 50% earlier this year.
“Previously we saw extreme oscillations in energy availability — moving from 26,000MW to 29,000MW and then back down again [over a short period of time]. Now it is staying at [higher levels],” he said.
The improvements on the generation side have also created an opportunity for increased levels of planned maintenance outages.
Increasing planned maintenance, to guarantee the future reliability of generation units, was key to ensuring that when SA emerges from the worst of the electricity crisis “we can say with a high degree of confidence that load-shedding is truly behind us”, Ramokgopa said.
“Because of the recoveries we are seeing on the generation side, and the steady nature of those recoveries, we now have an opportunity to ramp up planned maintenance in the midst of winter.”
Unplanned breakdowns of generation units were now sitting below 14,000MW after highs of more than 21,000MW earlier this year. “We have now breached what I call the psychological mark of 14,000MW, we are now below that. I am not saying that breakdowns will not deteriorate again, but we are seeing an overall downward trend. For me that is important.”
Tasks
Ramokgopa said his interpretation of the task set for the minister of electricity when this position was created this year by President Cyril Ramaphosa was to reduce the intensity and frequency of load-shedding.
“When you aggregate all the improvements together, they are responsible for us now having eight to 16 hours per day without load-shedding. This is not by accident; it is because of the exceptional efforts of the men and women at Eskom ... I am confident that we will continue to make these improvements.”
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