Russian president Vladimir Putin has pulled out of the grain deal with Ukraine, raising fear of increased food insecurity in African countries that benefited from the deal since 2022.
Moscow pulled out of the deal for the smooth passage of grain in the Black Sea days after President Cyril Ramaphosa held talks with him. It said commitments to remove obstacles to Russian food and fertiliser exports were still to be honoured.
Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s biggest grain producers. Exports have been disrupted by the war in Ukraine.
According to the Kremlin, Putin told Ramaphosa during the Saturday phone call that the deal’s main goal — to supply grain to countries in need, including those on the African continent — has not been implemented.
Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, said on Monday that SA remained hopeful that the deal will be revived. It was brokered by the UN and Turkey to alleviate a global food crisis.
“Talks are ongoing. We are confident that the grain deal will be revived on a sustainable basis,” Magwenya said on Monday.
Conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a shortage of grain and fertiliser in many African countries that import the commodities from the two warring countries. According to the IMF, staple food prices in Africa surged by an average of 23.9% in 2020/2022 because of the war.
Russia’s decision to pull out of the grain deal is a blow to Ramaphosa and five other African heads of state who called for the free flow of grain during the Africa-led peace mission to Russia and Ukraine in June.
“Russia’s refusal to renew the Black Sea grain deal presents an upside risk to global grain prices, which may undermine the gains we were all starting to enjoy from the slowing grain prices, specifically in the major importing regions,” says chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), Wandile Sihlobo.
“We are not directly at risk as we have large domestic grain supplies. With that said, we still import about 1.5-million tonnes of wheat annually, but most of this for the 2022/2023 season is already on our shores.
“Still, the price reaction to the news of Russia’s refusal is worth monitoring and could impact SA consumers. But the extent of that will depend on how global grain markets react to this current glitch caused by Russia.”
UN secretary-general António Guterres expressed disappointment at Russia’s refusal to renew the grain deal, saying there will be dire consequences for global food security.
“But it will not stop our efforts to facilitate the unimpeded access to global markets for food products and fertilisers from both Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” Guterres told reporters on Monday.
Withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal comes ahead of the Russia-Africa summit scheduled for later this month and the SA-hosted Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, SA) political parties dialogue starting on Tuesday.
This also comes ahead of the Brics annual summit in August where there remains uncertainty of the attendance of Putin who has an International Criminal Court warrant of arrest hanging over his head.
Should he arrive in the country, SA would be compelled to arrest him because Pretoria is a signatory of the Rome Statute.
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