Theoretical modelling suggests that SA will need about 750,000 fully electric vehicles (EV) on the roads by 2030 to meet its net-zero environmental aims, Simphiwe Ngwenya of the presidential climate commission said on Friday.
In 2022, the SA motor industry sold fewer than 5,000 EVs, of which only 500 were fully electric, with no need for backup from petrol or diesel internal combustion engines (ICE). In the first half of this year, 2,578 EVs were sold — again most with dual electric and ICE power.
Ngwenya was speaking in Gqeberha at a conference hosted by the Automotive Business Council (Naamsa), which represents vehicle manufacturers and importers. She stressed that the 750,000 was not a sales target but an estimate of the market growth SA will need to meet its just transition commitments to clean energy.
Though EV demand is rising, the government’s failure to incentivise the local sale and manufacture of EVs restricts the rate severely. The government has said it is unlikely to encourage sales through buyer incentives, but the industry says overseas experience shows these are necessary to kick-start the market. In addition, many potential EV buyers are frightened off by Eskom’s load-shedding.
Power supply
They are not the only ones. Eastern Cape finance, economic development & environmental affairs MEC Mvusi Mvoko said load-shedding had already forced the closure of some small automotive components companies in the province. Some major suppliers were warning they might follow suit.
This was bad news for a province responsible for almost half the vehicles produced in SA and heavily dependent on the motor industry for economic and employment growth. Though Eskom and the province were trying to keep the power flowing to assembly plants, it meant nothing “if we don’t do the same for their suppliers”. Mvoko said that no components meant no vehicles. He encouraged motor companies to buy more energy from independent power producers.
Ngwenya admitted SA had a lot of catching up to do in terms of all its climate-change and environmental goals. “Compared to where we are now, we need to do more very, very quickly,” she said. But it could not be at all costs. “At the same time we have to ensure economic stability. People must continue to be employed.”
To assist with this, she said, the country must act faster to take advantage of the opportunities presented by rapidly growing demand for alternative energy sources, such as solar panels and wind turbines. “We are importing so many, and we have to work out what we have to do to localise and what it means for employment.”
SA Nuclear Energy Corporation CEO Loyiso Tyabashe said it was difficult to press for environmental transition when existing energy was inadequate. Describing SA as “energy-starved”, he said: “If you have energy security, you can talk about the environment. With energy poverty, you can’t.”
Fani Tshifularo, executive director of the SA Petroleum Association (Sapia), observed: “We have to approach the just transition in a way that makes sense in SA. There’s a danger of wanting to jump when you aren’t ready.”
He cautioned against concentrating exclusively on electric power for clean energy. All options should be considered. For example, local oil companies would soon start providing cleaner fuels that would make a significant difference to air quality.
Ngwenya stressed that solutions must be found urgently. As underlined by last year’s KwaZulu-Natal floods and the Eastern Cape drought, “climate change is already upon us”, she said.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.