Included among the many scenarios for SA’s future energy mix proposed in the draft integrated resources plan (IRP) 2023 is a delay in decommissioning coal-fired power stations, using clean technologies to add more coal-fired power and rolling out more than 14,000MW of new nuclear power.
The IRP 2023 also makes it clear SA will continue to experience electricity supply shortages at least until 2027 unless there is a “significant” improvement in the performance of Eskom’s coal-fired power plants.
Published by the department of mineral resources & energy (DMRE) for public comment on Thursday, the plan provides a road map for future energy planning and private and public procurement of new generation capacity. It will replace the IRP 2019 once it is adopted.
According to the revised plan, SA will “continue to pursue a diversified energy mix that will provide security of supply while ensuring compliance with its emission reduction plan”.
But, “given the abundance of coal resources in the country” coal would continue to play a “significant role in electricity generation,” it said.
Nevertheless, the rollout of renewable energy is set to increase rapidly through private and public procurement.
The IRP 2023 estimates that the removal of the licensing requirement for private generation provided for in IRP 2019 had resulted in the registration of projects with a potential generation capacity of more than 6,000MW.
The IRP 2023 provides energy mix scenarios for the period up to 2030 and a second period up to 2050.
For both periods, one of the biggest risks is Eskom plant performance which, as the IRP 2023 shows, has deteriorated from an energy availability factor (EAF) — this shows actual generation performance as a percentage of total installed capacity — of about 85% in 2010 to about 55% in 2023.
In the different scenarios developed for the two review periods, the IRP 2023 considers the repercussions should plant performance continue to deteriorate as it has since 2010, with EAF dropping to 51% by 2030. The plan also makes provision for a scenario where EAF improves to 69% by 2030 assuming Eskom successfully implements its generation recovery plan.
Another risk highlighted in the new IRP is the need for Eskom to comply with air quality regulations by meeting certain minimum emissions standards. Eskom has been granted a delay in complying with the regulations until the environment department reaches a final decision on its request to delay the timeline for compliance for certain power stations. However, if a decision is made that Eskom has to comply immediately it would have to shut down 16,000MW of generation capacity now (about 40% of Eskom’s total generation capacity from coal) and up to 30,000MW (75% of total capacity) after March 2025.
According to the IRP “a balance will have to be found between energy security, the adverse health effects of poor air quality and the economic cost associated with these plants shutting down”.
In those scenarios for the period to 2030 where EAF does not improve, SA will continue to suffer electricity supply deficits over the review period. The only scenarios that achieve adequate electricity supply before 2030 assume either a quick rollout of gas-to-energy projects over the review period or the successful implementation of Eskom’s generation recovery plan resulting in an EAF of about 70% by 2030.
The plan up to 2030 includes 1,400MW of new generation capacity from coal (this is from Kusile units 5 and 6), 4,200MW of gas power from the emergency power procurement round (this is the 1,200MW power procured from Karpowership SA) as well as power that will come from other government-backed independent power procurement rounds for gas-to-power projects. In December the DMRE launched a bidding round for 2,000MW of gas power.
The plan makes no provision for new nuclear or hydro power to be added by 2030 but assumes about 3,600MW and 4,500MW of generation capacity to come from solar and wind respectively. In addition, it estimates that the private sector will add about 6,300MW of generation capacity for own use and the rollout of 3,700MW of battery energy storage.
The long-term scenarios, up to 2050, consider several pathways such as adding up to 14,500MW of new nuclear power or adding about 166,000MW of new capacity from wind, solar, gas and battery storage. One scenario shows new coal capacity of 5,000MW developed using clean coal technologies by 2040.
The reviews for the period to 2030 and the period to 2050 both make the case for delaying the decommissioning of Eskom coal-fired power stations.
The delayed shutdown plan assumes about 13,000MW of coal-fired power capacity will be decommissioned by 2034 instead of about 15,000MW, and then there will be no decommissioning between 2035 and 2045 after which another 10,000MW will be shut down up to 2050. This results in generation capacity from existing coal-power stations of about 18,000MW by 2050 against the previous plan of 10,000MW.
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