SA needs to move much quicker to deliver new transmission infrastructure that will connect more megawatts to the grid than envisaged in Eskom’s current transmission development plan, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says.
He told journalists this week that Eskom’s plans to build 1,400km of new transmission lines over the next three years are not sufficient and at least 6,000km should be built over this period.
Eskom’s current transmission development plan, published in 2022, outlines the need for the installation of more than 14,000km of new high-voltage power lines by 2032. Over the past 10 years it has built a mere 4,300km of transmission lines.
Ramokgopa said this rollout must also be sped up.
According to Eskom’s transmission development plan “we need 14,000km [of new transmission lines] in next 10 years, but I would argue it is needed much earlier — within the next five to seven years”, he said.
A shortage of available grid capacity in those provinces that have the most potential for solar and wind power generation — the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape — has emerged as one of the biggest risks to the Energy Action Plan, which aims to end load-shedding in the shortest possible time.
Ramokgopa, who is in charge of delivering the Energy Action Plan, has repeatedly warned that SA will soon face a new energy crisis if it does not speed up the pace of grid expansion to allow for sufficient new generation capacity to be added to the grid to compensate for the current shortfall in electricity supply.
Eskom has sufficient funds to build about 1,400km of new transmission lines over the next three to four years, as per the current transmission development plan. Segomoco Scheppers, Eskom GM for transmission, previously said the capital requirement to fund Eskom’s transmission development plans over the next three to four years was about R70bn.
But, said Ramokgopa, “I am of the opinion that we need to do significantly more than that, I think we need to be closer to 6,000km. Eskom's balance sheet does not allow for that, which is why we are working on the solutions of how best to finance [grid expansion] without relinquishing state ownership of the grid but tapping into private sector liquidity”.
Ramokgopa presented a transmission financing plan to the cabinet in December 2023, but it was referred back to the ministry for adjustments. These adjustments, he said, have now been “satisfied” and he is confident cabinet will now approve the plan.
“We know that the Eskom balance sheet is weak so it is important that we tap into private sector liquidity to be able to finance transmission expansion.”
While not providing details on the financing models contained in the plan, Ramokgopa said one option they have considered is a similar model to the independent power producer (IPP) programme that is used to procure new generation capacity from the private sector.
The IPP programme is a state-backed plan that promises investors and developers secure take-off for a certain period. The generation assets are owned by private sector investors, but the government has made it clear that in allowing private investment for grid expansion it still wants Eskom to retain full ownership of the grid.
Despite Ramokgopa’s insistence that new transmission infrastructure must be built faster than current plans suggest, the picture might change once Eskom revises the TDP to align it with the new Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) 2023.
Eskom received an exemption from the national energy regulator not to publish an update to the transmission development plan in 2023, pending an update to the IRP. The current plan is based on the 2019 version of the IRP, which provided for much more renewable energy to be added by 2030 than what is suggested in the draft 2023 version of the plan.
Adding 14,000km of transmission lines by 2032 would allow about 52GW of new generation capacity (in line with the IRP 2019) to be connected to the grid, mostly from renewable sources. But the draft IRP 2023 proposes adding only 29GW of new generation capacity to the grid by 2030 — only 8GW of that from renewable sources.
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