The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) projected a voter turnout of 66% or more for the election, underscoring a potential resurgence in voter engagement that could have broad implications for the political landscape.
The voter turnout, which would be about 20% higher than that of the 2021 local government poll, may reflect anxiety among South Africans as they cast their ballots in a critical vote that could steer the country into the unpredictable waters of coalition government.
Opinion polls ahead of the seventh election since the end of apartheid hint at the possibility of the ANC losing its electoral majority. This scenario would force it to strike a post-election coalition with other parties.
Over the past three decades, the number of registered voters has increased, reaching 27-million in 2024. But turnout at polling stations has been on a downtrend from just over 89% in 1999 to a projected turnout of just above 66% this year.
“Between 2021 and the certification of the voters’ roll for this election, we lost no fewer than 800,000 people on the voters’ roll. Even with that net decline, we were able to significantly improve the registration figures to 27.7-million, which is the biggest size of the voters’ roll we have ever compiled going into an election,” said the IEC’s deputy chief electoral officer, Masego Sheburi.
Voters lined up before dawn, with many expressing a sense of duty to participate in the democratic process. There were long queues in suburban areas of Cape Town, Johannesburg and Durban. The implications for political parties of the high voter turnout, if reflected across the country including the ANC’s rural heartlands, were unclear at the time of publication.
Polling research firm Ipsos’ modelling shows a low voter turnout — of between 41% and 43% — would benefit the ANC, bringing it closer to securing 50% of the vote. But a high voter turnout of between 74% and 76% could see the party garnering 43% of the vote, suggesting the ANC might require a coalition with one of the bigger parties.
Electoral analyst Wayne Sussman said the jury was still out on which political parties would benefit most.
“Turnout is absolutely key in an election. It speaks to the credibility of the result. In an election it is about getting your constituencies to the polls and erasing the differential out your opponents,” Sussman said.
The vote for a new parliament and nine provincial legislatures is the toughest test for the ANC to date with several opinion polls suggesting that it would slip below the 50% mark.
The ANC has been steadily losing support nationally amid widespread discontent over corruption, poor delivery of basic services and a stagnant economy.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, who shared a broad smile after casting his vote in Soweto, was confident of a “firm majority”.
“The people of SA will give the ANC — as they vote today — a firm majority. So in my mind, in my head, in my thought processes, there isn’t even a doubt about that,” said Ramaphosa, who campaigned on promises to crack down on corruption, fight crime and reinvigorate the economy.
Fragmented opposition
To capitalise on the ANC’s dwindling support, opposition parties are positioning themselves as viable alternatives offering different visions for the country’s future. Ahead of the election, the DA formed the multiparty charter (MPC), an ambitious attempt to consolidate fragmented opposition. It has signed up 11 parties.
DA leader John Steenhuisen, who cast his vote in Durban North, KwaZulu-Natal, emphasised the importance of voting for change, echoing his campaign promise of stripping the ANC of its majority.
“I fundamentally believe residents in this election need to vote for change and to keep government accountable,” Steenhuisen said.
“That can only come through the MPC. There are parties that are not currently part of the charter and it remains to be seen how they do in this election, but if the MPC doesn’t get the 50%+1 mark, we will talk to other parties that are not part of the charter to see what can be done to prevent a doomsday coalition between the ANC and EFF.”
However, analysts have downplayed the MPC’s chances, saying its unity is undercut by the DA and IFP’s readiness to form a post-election coalition with the ANC, and its ideological diversity.
After casting his vote in KwaZulu-Natal, IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa urged South Africans to vote “with their hearts” but apply their minds. “Whatever dissatisfaction you have, take that dissatisfaction to the ballot box,” he said.
We must not out of our own fear of losing elections start casting aspersions on the IEC
— EFF leader Julius Malema
EFF leader Julius Malema praised the IEC for running a largely credible, free and fair election. “There is nothing scientific in life that is 100%. Even a DNA test with your own child is 99.9%. We must not out of our own fear of losing elections start casting aspersions on the IEC” he said. “IEC officials, for the most part, have been very professional.”
Minimal disruptions
Election officials reported a relatively smooth start to voting, with no major disruptions.
“As a commission, we want to be resolute to protect the integrity of these elections because the SA people have invested in their democracy and they have entrusted the responsibility on our shoulders,” IEC chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo said at a media briefing on Tuesday.
“We’ve got to act in a manner that does not let the ball drop.”
According the IEC’s elections timetable, Friday is the cut-off date for political parties to raise objections. The commission is scheduled to release the final results on June 2, and June 6 will be the proclamation of the results and seat allocation.
The most voting stations were in KwaZulu-Natal (4,974), the Eastern Cape (4,868) and Limpopo (3,216).
Nearly 3,000 soldiers have been drafted to work with the police to prevent and combat crime during the elections, Ramaphosa’s office said late on Tuesday. His statement came hours after Mamabolo flagged orchestrated attempts to muddy the outcome of the polls.
Police arrested three people after a woman reported being threatened when she arrived at a polling station in Limpopo, TimesLIVE reported.
Correction: May 29 2024
An earlier version of this story said John Steenhuisen voted in Umhlanga.
motsoenengt@businesslive.co.za
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