The ANC is facing a historic challenge to its dominance, particularly in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, in an early assessment of the election landscape that an analyst says would be difficult to reverse.
With more than 20% of the votes in, the ANC leads with 43.41% of the vote, signalling a potential shift in the political balance for the first time since the party was swept to victory in 1994 in the glow of national and international goodwill.
If these trends play out for the 80% of the vote that is yet to be tallied, the ANC would need to team up with bigger parties such as the DA or EFF to govern — uncharted and potentially volatile terrain for SA on the national level, which caused the stock market, the rand and bonds to stumble.
The two provinces represent a combined 44.3% of 27-million registered voters with the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, taking an early lead in KwaZulu-Natal with 43.47% by close of business on Thursday.
In Gauteng early projections show that there will be no outright winner, with the ANC leading with 36.44%, followed closely by the DA at 29.3%.
Former Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) commissioner Terry Tselane said the unfolding new political landscape was unsurprising because most of the metros countrywide are ruled by coalitions, with the ANC having lost its majority since 2021.
“It’s a clear indication that the dominant political party is no longer there. It’s good for democracy and [it] has always been an anomaly in a proportional representation system to have one dominant political party,” Tselane said.
ANC chair Gwede Mantashe expressed shocked at the MK party’s showing in KwaZulu-Natal, a performance that gives Zuma a say in the running of one of SA’s most economically important provinces and one that is home to Africa’s busiest harbour.
“MK is doing well in KZN. They have surprised me, but I am not expecting the same in other provinces,” Mantashe told journalists on Thursday.
“I expected the IFP to do well [in KwaZulu-Natal], but the MK is doing well, and that surprised me,” he said.
The rand fell more than 1.8% in earlier trade but recovered some of the losses to trade at R18.5945/$ by 5.20pm, while the stock market faltered with banks, the barometer of investor sentiment, leading the decliners’ list.
“Markets are keeping a watchful eye on election outcomes over the coming days, with the rand underperforming its emerging-market and commodity-based currency peers to highlight further short-term election angst,” said IG senior market analyst Shaun Murison.
“Early election results seem to correlate with recent polling estimates, namely the ANC losing ground, while there is a sharp debut by the MK party.
“The rise of MK, especially in KZN, creates material coalition variables, and foreign investment might not see this as positive for the economy. But there is still more than half the votes to count so things will be clearer shortly,” added Murison.
Elections analyst Wayne Sussman said the results so far were a “dramatic outcome” for the ANC.
He said the ANC would have to pin its hopes on its traditional voting bloc of the largely rural provinces, “where they can win some support back”.
“But as things stand, it’s a tough day in the office for the ANC,” Sussman said.
Voting is now complete, with final results scheduled to be announced on June 2, according to the IEC’s timetable.
“Once all the results are finalised, the commission will undertake the seat calculation process, based on a prescribed formula. The full list of the new public representatives will be handed over to the chief justice once seat assignment is completed,” IEC chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo said.
“While this process is proceeding well, it is important to reflect that historically, in the first 24 hours, 80% of the results would have been finalised. However, the process in the [elections] has been slowed down by the third ballot, particularly in the metropolitan areas.”
Update: May 30 2024
This article has been updated with new information.
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