The influence of labour federation Cosatu and the SACP on government policy and legislation is set to take a knock after the ANC lost its outright majority during the watershed general election.
The ANC suffered its most humiliating defeat at the polls in 30 years as its share of the vote plunged almost 17 percentage points from 57% in 2019 to 40% in 2024.
Cosatu and the SACP are part of the ANC-led tripartite alliance, which has governed one of Africa’s largest economies since the dawn of democracy.
The alliance has been very influential in the development and passing of government policies and legislation such as the national minimum wage, the “two-pot” retirement system and the basic conditions of employment act, among others.
Cosatu and SACP have always supported the ANC during elections and its leaders have served as cabinet ministers. Higher education, science and technology minister Blade Nzimande, and employment & labour minister Thulas Nxesi moonlight as SACP national chair and deputy chair, respectively.
However, Stellenbosch University political analyst Prof Amanda Gouws said: “The tripartite alliance really never worked. They are not elected structures even though they were allowed by the ANC to govern and influence policy. But now the ANC doesn’t have a choice, it doesn’t have a majority, they will have to compromise with their coalition partners.
“Therefore, if Cosatu or the SACP want to influence policy, they will have to become elected members. An elected, democratic government cannot work with unelected structures.”
Labour analyst and DA MP Michael Bagraim said: “First the alliance will probably remain in place even though the ANC has lost its majority. The influence will drop somewhat. However, our system is structured on the basis of consultation.”
Nedlac
Bagraim said trade unions through their federations would remain influential and policy formulation body the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac) “will not change its structure”.
“The structure very carefully lends itself to input from the trade unions and the various worker federations. Even if the DA has a co-operation agreement with the ANC, it will not affect the current minimum wage and any changes to legislation will be subject to years of discussion,” he said.
“As a labour lawyer I am fully aware that legislation requires an enormous amount of input and probably years of negotiations. Change is not immediately on the cards. The retirement legislation and the two-pot suggestion initially came from the DA. That would not change at all.”
The government is the biggest employer in SA and the weakening of the influence of the trade unions on government is an “extremely good factor”, he said.
“They are on the opposite sides of the debate. The real negotiations will take place in the portfolio committee and in particular in the employment and labour portfolio committee. It is in that portfolio that the trade union influence will drop quite radically,” said Bagraim.
Cosatu acting national spokesperson Matthew Parks said the ANC’s loss of its outright parliamentary majority “is a painful setback for workers and something we worked to avoid. We are pleased that nonetheless the ANC is the largest party and President Cyril Ramaphosa will be re-elected and [will] form cabinet shortly”.
Parks said Cosatu would be “vigilant to ensure that opposition parties are not able to impose a minority mandate on the majority party, the ANC”.
“We will not agree to any bill or policy or budget that undermines workers’ hard-won rights or the progress we have made since 1994 transforming SA and investing in working class communities,” Parks said.
“It will be complicated at times and require close management, but Cosatu will ensure government and parliament remain progressive and biased towards workers and working-class communities.”
However, political analyst Sandile Swana said: “Cosatu, by associating itself in the manner that it did with the ANC has put the workers as well as the working class at a great disadvantage. The loss of power by the ANC presents an opportunity for Cosatu to stop taking a shortcuts by saying they are the majority party and therefore they can potentially get anything.”
Cosatu now had a chance to advocate for full employment and “mobilise on proper principles of unionism, which they have not done in the longest time, which is why NUM [National Union of Mineworkers] has become irrelevant in the mining industry and so on. Cosatu [has] generally [been a] failure”.
“To be campaigning for a minimum wage as opposed to be campaigning for more work opportunities and full employment specifically has wasted their time,” Swana said.
“The labour movement, especially Cosatu, is in a crisis. The ANC has used Cosatu as a well-funded and well-organised structure with branches across the country to sustain itself in power, not to help the workers themselves or the working class. The conditions of the working class have deteriorated significantly and Cosatu has not been able to achieve much to assist them,” he added.
SACP spokesperson Alex Mashilo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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