Even with the global production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expected to treble in 2024 to 1.9-billion litres, this equals only slightly more than 0.5% of the industry’s needs for the year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Yet, some governments have mandated airlines to purchase SAF in amounts that do not exist. And where they have mandated SAF production there are no mechanisms to protect airlines from bearing the costs of supplier penalties for shortfalls. The challenge is to ramp up efficiently with diverse feedstocks and production methods.
This was the view shared by Willie Walsh, director-general of IATA, at the industry body’s annual AGM and global summit in Dubai recently.
Achieving a 5% emissions reduction through SAF by 2030, a target agreed to by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), is, therefore, “very ambitious”, according to Walsh. Nevertheless, IATA will keep pushing the use of SAF.
“Having agreed on that target — and it is important to remember that it is a governments’ target, not ours — we, therefore, expect governments to help make it possible. To be blunt, governments must deliver concrete measures to facilitate the exponential ramp-up of SAF they are calling for — while not forgetting all the other decarbonisation measures that are needed,” Walsh told summit delegates.
“SAF is our biggest decarbonisation lever to 2050. Achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is existential, not optional. This will impact every organisation associated with aviation. SAF alone will not be enough; we need many levers … and we must help governments build an effective policy framework.”
He emphasised any measures taken must be science-based as policies cannot be based on assumptions. Measures must have provisions for review and abandonment if they are not producing the intended results. In his view, merely raising more taxes is not the solution.
“We need policies that enable people to fly sustainably, not ground all but the rich with taxes — taxes that will have no positive environmental benefit. Measures should direct capital towards solutions like SAF,” said Walsh.
“The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a $400bn annual overinvestment in fossil fuels. At that pace, in 2050 we’ll have double the oil and gas needed for the net zero world that all industries are aiming for. Policies redirecting some of this overspend to SAF would find a waiting and profitable market … We know that decarbonising aviation is absolutely possible.”
Aaron Munetsi, CEO of the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA), attended the IATA AGM and global summit. He pointed out that population growth, urbanisation and the pressure to promote economic activity were driving demand for air transport to, from and within sub-Sahara Africa, and was set to double over the next decade.
Affordability, sustainability and fuel resilience are critical for airlines in the region, which is why AASA is urging Sadc governments to incentivise local SAF production, so it becomes more widely available at more affordable prices.
“Besides cutting aviation emissions, locally produced SAF will reduce Southern African airlines’ dependence on imported fuel. Currently almost all our jet fuel is imported, adding several layers of cost for shipping, logistics, distribution, storage as well as statutory duties and taxes,” said Munetsi.
“The result is a roughly 30% premium on the jet fuel price by the time it gets pumped into the aircraft. This is why fuel is our biggest cost component. If we can simultaneously shrink the cost and curb our carbon output, we will help to keep air transport and travel affordable and our destinations economically competitive.”
During its summit, IATA announced that it would establish an SAF Registry to accelerate the uptake of SAF by authoritatively accounting and reporting emissions reductions from SAF. The registry is expected to be launched in the first quarter of 2025.
According to IATA, SAF is expected to account for up to 65% of the total carbon mitigation needed to achieve net zero carbon emissions in air transportation by 2050. In the view of Walsh, Africa could be an exporter of SAF to the world.
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