The pipeline for renewable energy projects requiring grid connection over the next 10 years has more than doubled since last year, a new study shows.
The 2024 renewable energy grid survey, that was published recently, included responses from 483 (up from 209 last year) companies that are developing, or intend to build, renewable power plants in SA.
“New capacity that wants to connect to the grid more than doubled from last year, from 66GW to almost 134GW. This is a significant increase and gives us great insight into where more grid capacity has to be unlocked,” said Ronald Marais, strategic grid planning manager at the National Transmission Company of SA at the launch of the report.
In addition, he said, the total generation capacity of projects that would be ready to connect to the grid within the next three to five years increased from 18GW to 60GW. The report showed that about 8GW of capacity was expected to be built this year, followed by 23GW in 2025, and 17GW in 2026.
This would put SA in a good position to achieve the target for new renewable energy generation recommended by the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC).
In its electricity planning recommendations released last year, the PCC said the country had to add 50GW-60GW of renewables by 2030. This would bring the share of renewables in SA’s energy mix to about 40%, providing for the country to meet its international climate commitments and to replace generation capacity that would be lost when Eskom started decommissioning more end-of-life coal-fired power plants.
The 134GW project pipeline includes wind and solar power, as well as battery storage. The largest share is from solar power, with about 56GW of planned capacity. Wind power accounted for about 29GW of the total, projects that combined solar or wind power with battery energy storage amounted to about 33GW and battery storage projects contributed about 6.5GW.
The survey is a collaboration between Eskom, the SA Wind Energy Association and the SA Photovoltaic Industry Association, and is intended to support enhanced grid planning, as well as strengthening and expanding this critical infrastructure in SA.
The Northern Cape is still the most attractive province for renewable energy projects, accounting for about 30GW of the 134GW project pipeline, however, the survey shows that more independent power producers are shifting their focus to areas where there was more existing grid capacity, such as in Mpumalanga, Free State, Limpopo and North West province.
The project pipeline in Gauteng increased about tenfold, from only 845MW in 2023 to 8.8GW in 2024.
There is a serious shortage of available grid capacity in provinces such as the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and Western Cape. According to the survey about 45GW of projects would need grid access in these provinces over the next 10 years.
Eskom’s 10-year transmission development plan has set a target to build 14,000km of new transmission lines, but progress has been slow, partly due to a lack of funding.
The state has been working with the International Finance Corporation to develop options for financing to accelerate private sector investment in transmission without negatively affecting Eskom’s balance sheet and the fiscus.
The National Treasury said in July that it was moving forward with plans to launch a pilot project that would enable private investment in electricity grid infrastructure in 2024.
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