Circumstances have changed the assumptions built into the model used by the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023 and requires that the model be rerun, a department of mineral resources & energy specialist says.
Sonwabo Damba told parliament last week the electricity demand forecasts in the model had to be changed in line with the public comments received. Improved economic growth forecasts had changed the demand projections.
The improved performance of Eskom’s power plants, which has meant no load-shedding for more than 150 days, also had to be taken into account, as well as changes to Eskom’s plan to delay the decommissioning of some coal-fired power plants that were meant to shut down by 2030.
Damba, who is Eskom’s energy planning manager, cautioned in his comments to the electricity and energy committee that the longer it took to finalise a plan the more the assumptions became outdated.
The committee was briefed by departmental officials on the IRP and the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP).
The draft IRP 2023, which will replace the 2019 version, sets out the electricity generation required up until 2030.
It aims to ensure future energy security and will be used by Eskom and the government in making decisions about the procurement of new generation capacity.
The draft 2023 plan, which was released for comment in January, was heavily criticised as outdated and fundamentally flawed as it used what was said to be factually incorrect data and for the assumptions it made. It was also criticised for reducing the procurement of renewable energy, while emphasising nuclear and gas. The document was regarded as so shoddy that the process required revised modelling using updated data and the correct assumptions.
A total of 4,338 comments were received, of which 136 were substantive. The department’s director-general, Jacob Mbele, said there would be an engagement soon with those who had made substantive comments in a bid to reduce the gap between the plan and its critics. The aim was for the IRP 2023 to be finalised by the end of the year.
Mbele was adamant that the draft plan was not a fait accompli. With the assumptions changing, the conclusions would have to change.
Deputy minister of electricity & energy Samantha Graham told MPs that the draft IRP had major flaws and would be reviewed in the light of the submissions made. The modelling was outdated and did not allow sufficiently for new technologies.
She noted that a changing and fluctuating environment made modelling difficult.
Mbele said the department had finalised its analysis of the comments received, which would be sent to specialists including the University of Cape Town.
Dambo told MPs that “in the period between 2031 and 2050 the system will require a huge new build programme with significant capacity required injust over a decade from now. The implication of this is that implementation of generation capacity required for this horizon including associated transmission network will have to begin in earnest”.
Mbele told MPs that the draft IEP, which is an overarching plan covering electricity, gas and liquid fuels, would be ready at the end of the fourth quarter of the 2024/25 financial year, with the final report envisaged for the end of the second quarter of the following financial year.
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