SA’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to peak this year as the country gradually replaces coal-fire power with renewable energy sources, according to data presented in a draft report on the country’s progress in implementing and achieving its global climate commitments.
The draft first biennial transparency report published this week by the department of environmental affairs for public comment presents a summary of SA’s GHG inventory for the period from 2000 to 2022 as part of the country’s reporting on progress made in achieving its National Determined Contributions (NDCs).
SA’s NDCs contain a set of commitments has made under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions as part of global efforts to mitigate climate change.
The draft report says that GHG emissions from 2022 to 2030 are generally expected to decrease, with notable reductions in 2026, 2029, and especially 2030. This will in part be due to lower emissions from the energy sector as more coal-fired power is gradually replaced by renewable energy sources.
“The data shows a peak in emissions in 2024, followed by a downward trend, culminating in the lowest emissions in 2030,” the report states.
SA’s updated NDCs, published in 2021, set specific greenhouse gas emission targets for 2025 and 2030. By 2025, the target is to limit emissions to between 398-million tonnes and 510-million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (MtCO2e), and by 2030, the target range is 350-420 MtCO2e.
Meeting the 2030 target will cost SA about R1.48-trillion, with much of the investment directed towards the energy sector to add new renewable energy to the grid and to expand the transmission grid.
The report says SA’s GHG emissions excluding land use change and forestry amounted to 488.32 MtCO2e in 2021 and 478.89 MtCO2e in 2022, which are within the mitigation targets for 2021-25.
An assessment by the Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific monitoring project, rates SA’s 2030 NDC as insufficient to be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement.
The government must submit new NDCs for 2035 next year. This will provide the country with an opportunity to set more ambitious emission reduction targets.
The report shows that carbon dioxide is the biggest contributor to SA’s emissions accounting for 81.9%.
The sector-specific breakdown shows that energy emissions accounted for 78% of total emissions in 2022.
Industrial processes and product-use emissions for 2022 accounted for 6.4% of the total. However, the sector’s emissions have increased by 23.1% since 2020 due to the restoration of production in the minerals and metals industry after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Agriculture in 2022 accounted for 12% and the waste sector for 4.3% of total emissions.
According to the report, waste sector emissions have increased by 44.1% since 2000 with most coming from wastewater treatment and discharge and solid waste disposal.
The SA GHG emission inventory for the period 2000—22 wasn’t complete, mainly due to the lack of sufficient data, the report states.
“The main challenge in compiling SA’s GHG inventory remains the availability of specific-activity and emission factor data,” it adds.
The department of forestry, fisheries & the environment is implementing the National Greenhouse Gas Improvement Programme — a series of sector-specific projects that will result in improvements in activity data, country-specific methodologies and emission factors used in the most significant sectors.
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