The coal mining industry is a core employer in Mpumalanga, accounting for about 5% of the province’s total employment, excluding indirect employment induced by the industry.
This is according to research conducted by the University of Cape Town, measuring individual and household coal economy dependence, which found that SA’s coal mining landscape is characterised by regional concentration, with Mpumalanga accounting for about 80% of national production.
“The industry accounts for about 5% of total employment in the province, while accounting for 19% of employment in eMalahleni, 15% in Msukaligwa, 14% in Steve Tshwete, 3.5% in Govan Mbeki, 9.4% in Mkhondo, 5% in Albert Luthuli, and 7% in Victor Khanye,” the study said.
The figures do not account for indirect employment through coal, such as retail and financial services, it says.
Mpumalanga is the hub of SA’s coal mining industry. Of SA’s 78 operating coal mines, 65 are in the province, and together these mines account for 80% of coal production in SA. The biggest share (72.3- 86.7%) of employment in the SA coal mining industry is in Mpumalanga.
The study conducted by Haroon Bhorat, Tsungai Kupeta, Lisa Martin and François Steenkamp said about 106,887 direct and indirect jobs were linked to the coal value chain, and that while the world was transitioning away from coal the coal mining industry and the broader coal value chain remains important in SA and will need “careful consideration when transitioning”.
In 2022, Eskom decommissioned Komati, a power station operational since 1961. Situated in SA’s coal-rich Mpumalanga region, the facility was shut down with the intention to repurpose it into a renewable energy hub boasting 150MW of photovoltaic energy, 70MW of wind generating capacity, 150MW of battery energy storage system and synchronous condenser.
However, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane has said mistakes were made in how the plant was closed and the “just” element of it was lacking.
The entity was now playing “catch-up” in addressing the just leg of the just transition regarding Komati, and that things will be done differently in future.
Eskom has since sanctioned the extension of Camden, Hendrina and Grootvlei power stations’ operations to 2030.
Previous decommissioning schedules provided for the Grootvlei and Camden power stations to be fully decommissioned by 2025 and Hendrina by 2026.
A 2024 research study funded by the Water Research Commission found that more than 6-million people in SA who live in mining areas will be affected socially and economically by mine closures, with communities in the coal belt and gold-mining areas likely to be the most affected.
The study called for the government and companies to think about the social risks that will accompany the closure of coal mines as new investments in the sector dry up while the country ramps up investments into cleaner energy.
The UCT study said as transition is a process, the number of jobs in the coal industry, and associated policy cost, will change over time.
“We present two simplistic scenarios to project the level of employment in the coal industry in 2029. Scenario 1 projects employment growth based on annualised growth rate of 2.9% for the full period of data (1994-2019), while Scenario 2 projects employment growth based on annualised growth rate of 1.9% for a more recent period (2010- 2019),” reads the study.
“While it is difficult to accurately make such projections, we can get a sense of where employment in the industry will stand at the end of this decade. Assuming a growth rate consistent with that achieved since 1994, coal industry employment should stand at about 101,456 jobs in 2029.
“Should a lower growth rate, similar to that achieved over the past decade, be realised, employment should stand at about 92,016 jobs in 2029. Given the endogenous and exogenous forces affecting on the coal industry, and hence driving the transition, the lower estimate evident in Scenario 2 may be the more realistic of the two.”
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