Scholars from the Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), one of the world’s pre-eminent public policy institutions on foreign policy and national security issues, say it would not be in the US’s national interest to sever economic ties with SA.
The CSIS scholars say that the relationship between the two countries faces a “reconciliation or rapture” moment under the Donald Trump presidency.
President-elect Trump will officially take over the White House next week, marking his second term as president of the world’s largest economy, following his first term between 2017 and 2021.
Trump’s cabinet is set to be packed with members who have previously called for Washington to review its relationship with Pretoria due to SA’s diplomatic ties to Russia and support for Palestine in its war against Israel.
Ryan Cummings, a senior associate at the Washington-based CSIS, said Trump’s re-election has raised concerns over the future of bilateral relations between SA and the US — both on opposing ends of geopolitical fissures.
“Despite asserting its strategic neutrality or non-alignment, SA has cozied up with US rivals such as Russia, China and Iran while championing multilateral reform that seeks to dilute the US-led order,” Cummings wrote in a CSIS publication.
“The ANC-led government has also opposed US policy on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. Here, the administration of Cyril Ramaphosa has paradoxically defended Russia in Ukraine, while concomitantly hauling Israel to the International Court of Justice for comparable hostilities in the enclave of Gaza.
“SA’s inconsistency has frustrated US policymakers, with a growing bipartisan interest in reassessing relations.”
However, Cummings said while the relationship was expected to be rosy, he expects the two countries to awaken to the realisation that their diplomatic and economic ties are mutually beneficial.
SA’s inconsistency has frustrated US policymakers, with a growing bipartisan interest in reassessing relations.
“Rhetoric by the Trump administration suggests that bilateral relations with SA may deteriorate over the next four years. This could result in SA losing trade benefits under the (Agoa) — which will be subject to renewal in 2025. It may even see funding cuts to initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership and additional risk premia imposed on doing business with SA,” Cummings said.
“This will compound existing aversion among Western companies, further restricting SA’s portfolio and foreign direct inflows. That said, losses will not be one-sided. Any ostracisation of SA will likely push Africa’s hegemonic power into the orbit of Russia and China.
“This could provide the US’s foremost geopolitical rivals with a competitive edge on a continent endowed with critical minerals and which is home to the world’s fastest-growing consumer market. If such losses are to be avoided, both the US and SA may be forced into concessions that emphasise mutual interest.”
The Trump presidency comes as SA, Africa’s most industrialised economy, will be the first country on the continent to assume the year-long presidency of the G20. SA’s presidency began in December with the US under Trump next in line for the G20 presidency.
SA is the third consecutive Brics member to assume the leadership of the bloc, following India and Brazil, whose tenure ends at the end of the month.
The AU was accepted as a permanent member of the G20 at the bloc’s summit in New Delhi in 2023. The bloc brings together the world’s largest economies including the US, China, Japan, France and Germany.
Trump has nominated several SA critics to his cabinet, subject to confirmation by the US Senate. These include Michael Waltz, picked for the national security role, and Elise Stefanik, punted for ambassador to the UN.
Trump has also nominated Marco Rubio as the US’s chief diplomat. Cummings said the nominations will make the SA-US relationship a testing one.
Stefanik is a staunch ally of Israel and has gone on record as describing SA’s International Court of Justice case as an “antisemitic baseless attempt by the international community to perpetuate false and dangerous allegations against the Jewish state.”
Notably, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, senator Marco Rubio, was similarly combative towards SA for its contentious decision to relocate Taiwan’s diplomatic office from the SA capital of Pretoria to the city of Johannesburg.”
Waltz was one of the proponents of a “comprehensive review” of US ties with SA.
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