Just 35% of South Africans believe the presidency of Donald Trump is good for SA, according to a global poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in co-operation with Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World research project.
The results show many SA respondents are undecided about the incoming US president and what his administration holds for Africa’s most industrialised economy, while 24% said his re-election spelt bad news for the country.
However, 42% of South Africans polled said Trump’s presidency is good for restoring peace in the world, while 28% believe the opposite.
SA was the only African country polled, in a study that surveyed countries such as Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark, plus China, Great Britain, Ukraine, India, Turkey, Russia, the US, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland.
The poll was commissioned by YouGov, Datapraxis and Gallup International Association.
Trump was re-elected in a resounding victory over vice-president Kamala Harris in November.
President-elect Trump will officially take over at the White House from Joe Biden next week, marking his second term as leader of the world’s largest economy. His first term was in 2017-21.
Trump did not set foot in Africa in his first term — a continent he notoriously referred to as a “shithole” — but is likely to do so when SA hosts the G20 summit later this year, the first time an African country has presided over the international forum.
Trump’s cabinet is set to be packed with members who have previously called for Washington to review its relationship with Pretoria due to SA’s diplomatic ties to Russia and its support for Palestine in its war against Israel.
Business Day reported on Tuesday that scholars from the Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), one of the world’s pre-eminent public policy institutions on foreign policy and national security issues, say it would not be in the US’ national interest to sever economic ties with SA.
The CSIS warned that any move by the US to isolate SA would push the country closer to Russia and China, Washington’s fiercest geopolitical and trade rivals.
The poll also sought to gauge how the 24 nations surveyed viewed Russia. The results show that 63% of SA respondents regard Russia as an ally and a necessary partner.
Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European studies at the University of Oxford, political scientist Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in a policy brief the weakening of the West is visible in its failure to isolate Moscow globally after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Many countries exhibit a remarkably strong acceptance of Russia as an ally or necessary partner, despite nearly three years of Russia waging a brutal neocolonial war in Ukraine,” they wrote.
“The number of Indians and Chinese who consider Russia to be their countries’ ally has even marginally grown since January 2023. Average American opinion of Russia has also improved, even if a majority continues to see Russia as either a rival or an adversary.
“And in a number of non-Western countries — China, India, Saudi Arabia, SA and Turkey — most people expect Russia’s global influence to grow in the next decade; this is also the view of nearly half of the population in Brazil and Indonesia. In short, it seems that it is losing wars rather than starting them that damages your standing with public opinion in much of the world,” they added.
“At the same time, Russians and Chinese are much more united in their mutual appreciation than Europeans and Americans. The perception of Russia in China has strengthened marginally since the end of 2022, but so has the perception of China in Russia. This makes this couple a rare ‘entente cordiale’ in today’s global politics.”
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