Sub-Saharan preferential access to US markets is under threat as the Trump administration escalates its hostility towards global free trade, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) trade chief Wamkele Mene has warned.
The US has already threatened to impose high tariffs on the EU, with US President Donald Trump saying the bloc was created to “screw the US”. Trump also plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.
Africa was also in the US firing line and should be ready for the US to replace the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) with bilateral and reciprocal trade agreements with individual African states, Mene said.
Though trade friction and protectionism had created uncertainty across global supply chains, the expansion of trade partnerships and increased intra-African trade through AfCFTA could help mitigate these effects, he said.
He was speaking on Friday at an AfCFTA and SA private sector round-table breakfast session at Nedbank’s head office in Johannesburg.
“It’s most unfortunate, not just for SA, but for [all] African countries that benefit from Agoa, that [the current diplomatic] uncertainty has an impact on Agoa. Many countries in Africa benefit from market access in Agoa on a nonreciprocal basis. The signals that we are getting is that all of that will change. We should expect that we will be, as African countries, placed under very severe pressure.”
SA has been at the forefront of ensuring that Agoa, which is up for renewal in September 2025, is retained as a cornerstone of US trade policy with Africa. For SA, retaining its status as a beneficiary is crucial as Agoa provides preferential access for about 20% of the country’s exports to the US, or 2% of its shipments globally.
Since Agoa’s introduction, the value of SA’s automotive exports to the US have surged to R27.9bn in 2023, the last year for which official figures have been published.
Agoa was signed into law by former US president Bill Clinton in May 2000. The legislation was reviewed again in 2015 and extended for 10 years after a contentious debate. The revisions made it easier to become eligible and focused on improving the future business environment in developing African countries.
To secure another extension, the legislation will need to win approval in the US Congress, where Republicans hold the majority after Trump’s electoral victory in November.
The agreement allows eligible African countries to export more than 1,800 products duty-free to the US and has historically enjoyed bipartisan support in Congress.
The reality of being expelled from Agoa played out in 2022 for Ethiopia, forcing the country to look elsewhere for its products.
“Ethiopia was removed from Agoa and immediately pivoted their export markets, broadened their export base and diversified. Ethiopia, in that period, doubled their exports to China. These exports range over a number of sectors, including manufactured goods that are manufactured in the special economic zones in Ethiopia,” Mene said.
“This crisis is also an opportunity for us to explore new markets in Africa.
While Africa’s share of exports under Agoa since 2000 fell from 17% to 6%, the continent’s share of exports to China rose from 3% to 14% from 2020 to 2024, he said.
Parks Tau, trade, industry & competition minister, said at the same event that AfCFTA provided SA with an opportunity to diversify its markets.
Under the trade agreement, Tau said, trade with other African countries amounted to R696m between January 2024 and January this year. SA exports included mining equipment, apparel, food and electrical goods.
SA mainly exports to Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana and Rwanda under the preferential intra-Africa trade regime, Tau said.
SA ratified AfCFTA in 2019 and began trading with 12 African countries under it last year, beginning with Kenya and Ghana.
SA is the first among the four Southern African Customs Union countries to launch preferential trade exports under AfCFTA’s second Guided Trade Initiative.
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