The presidency has for the first time publicly flagged the risk of a coup in a startling admission made by minister in the presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.
Her comments were made during a media briefing on Tuesday on the redacted version of SA’s national security strategy for 2024-28 adopted by the cabinet in March 2024. They mark a historic shift in intelligence transparency in a country where talk of a military overthrow was once unthinkable.
Ntshavheni moved swiftly to downplay the alarm, emphasising that no recent attempts had materialised and that intelligence agencies were monitoring suspected networks.
“One of the risks is the risk of a coup d’état. There is a potential risk of a coup d’état. We have identified it and put measures [in place] to mitigate against it.
“So that is why we say to South Africans there will not be anyone attempting to do a coup in SA,” Ntshavheni said as she presented a strategy that outlined domestic vulnerabilities and risks.
“In the last few days or the last few weeks, there has not been anyone attempting to do a coup in SA. Not that there are not people planning. There are, but we are continuously monitoring them and making sure that we deal with those.”
The release of the strategy — which defines a coup as a key threat and as the attempt by armed forces of the state to violently overthrow the constitutional order — was recommended by the 2018 high-level review panel on the State Security Agency (SSA) chaired by Sydney Mufamadi. Its release subjects SA’s intelligence community to unprecedented parliamentary, civil society and public scrutiny.
Other threats
Other threats facing the country in the 2024-28 security outlook are social instability, mainly due to unemployment, poverty, inequality, poor service delivery, a shrinking black middle class, poor governance, crime, the trust deficit between the government and the public, and lawlessness.
Layered into this is political instability at local government level, where unstable coalitions, targeted assassinations, corruption and unconstructive political discourse exist.
One of the domestic priorities outlined in the strategy is to decontaminate the criminal justice system of criminality, allegations about which were publicised recently by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, who implicated police minister Senzo Mchunu, now on special leave.
Also released are the national intelligence estimates for 2019-24, which provide an assessment of the security risks faced and which are evaluated on a continuous basis. The minister said the current national intelligence estimates could not be released as this would undermine the state’s security strategy.
One of the major failures of the security agencies was the inability to pick up the threat of the 2021 July unrest, which resulted in 350 deaths and an estimated R50bn in damage. However, Ntshavheni said apart from climate change-related events, there had been no other major events during the 2019-24 period.
The intelligence agencies had managed to stamp out threats of uprisings. She said that the work of the agencies should be assessed by the number of crises that did not happen, which attested to their effectiveness, rather than by what did take place.
During the debate on the state security budget, Ntshavheni said a panel including two senior counsel and a counsel was investigating alleged criminality in the intelligence services, raised in various reports, with a view to possible disciplinary action and referral for prosecution. This formed part of efforts to strengthen consequence management in the organisation.
She said initiatives were under way to modernise and improve the effectiveness and accountability of the country’s intelligence apparatus. Skills gaps were also being addressed, including those left by people taking voluntary severance packages.
Consultations would take place on the proposed cybersecurity strategy to address the cyber risks facing the country.
Ntshavheni said the state security structures would make themselves available to the commission of inquiry established by President Cyril Ramaphosa under acting deputy chief justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga to investigate Mkhwanazi’s allegations.
The malaise in the SSA was highlighted both in the high-level panel report and in the report of the Zondo commission of inquiry into state capture.
The panel report referred to the way the agency had become factionalised and used to promote the political agenda of a faction in the ANC, while the Zondo report detailed how the agency had been looted and plagued by malfeasance and corruption.
Opposition MPs raised these concerns during the debate, pointing to the lack of accountability and transparency in the SSA. Ntshavheni said the recommendations of these reports were being implemented.
ActionSA chief whip Athol Trollip said it was common cause “that SA’s intelligence capacity has been systematically hollowed out.
“Successive administrations have presided over the politicisation, mismanagement and fragmentation of our intelligence services.
“This has left us dangerously exposed at a time when the threat environment is becoming increasingly volatile and where threats are far more sophisticated and less conventional.
“From transnational trafficking syndicates and terrorism to espionage and the invasion of our porous borders, the state lacks the strategic coherence, technical capability and professional leadership required to secure the republic against both current and emerging threats.”
Chair of the joint standing committee on intelligence (JSCI) Sylvia Lucas (ANC) noted that in the 2025/26 financial year the SSA would be disestablished and replaced by two specialised units — the Domestic Intelligence Agency and the Foreign Intelligence Service — dealing with domestic and foreign intelligence respectively. She stressed the need to strengthen internal governance.
National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza has asked the JSCI to consider the allegations made by Mkhwanazi and their implications for national security, and to submit a report on this to the National Assembly.
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