Joel Netshitenzhe, executive director of the think-tank Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), has described the government of national unity (GNU) as the “most logical arrangement” given the domestic, global and economic dynamics facing SA.
He was speaking in Johannesburg on Tuesday at the launch of the “Mistra Coalitions Barometer II” report, monitoring local coalitions in 2023-25 and the country’s national and provincial coalitions in 2024-25.
Netshitenzhe said differences between the GNU partners, especially the ANC and DA, have led to some pundits “exaggerating the death of the GNU”.
The two-biggest parties in the GNU have already butted heads over the Basic Education Laws Act, National Health Insurance, the budget, economic transformation laws and land expropriation.
The GNU was formed after the 2024 general election when the ANC lost its electoral majority, plunging 17 percentage points and garnering 40% of votes during the May 29 polls.
The SACP, which is part of the ANC-led tripartite alliance with Cosatu, opposes the GNU, which it describes as a “monumental setback” for the working class.
Deputy president Paul Mashatile has said it was not an ideal scenario for the ANC, despite President Cyril Ramaphosa having previously said it was “working out very well”.
“The ANC has had to learn the mastery of coalition politics especially in the budgeting process,” Netshitenzhe said.
“The anger that the DA’s performative politics has generated on this matter has led to serious examination of alternative coalition options. We saw the outcomes of the ANC NEC [national executive committee] meeting last weekend.”
In his closing address at the NEC, Ramaphosa announced that the NEC had resolved to include other parties in the GNU. According to TimesLIVE, the ANC has been at loggerheads with its biggest partners in the government, with the recent disagreements provoked by Ramaphosa’s decision to fire DA deputy minister of trade, industry & competition Andrew Whitfield.
In protest, the DA denounced the national dialogue and threatened to reject budgets of ANC ministers accused of wrongdoing. This was considered a tipping point between the two partners.
Netshitenzhe said the Mistra barometer shows declining volatility in coalition-led municipalities albeit with minimal progress in good financial management and delivery of basic services.
“The ANC and its allies seem to be stuck on the terrain of governance, and they will have to relearn the utilisation of other terrains of contestation,” he said.
“ANC is seen as the DEI [diversity, equality and inclusion] incarnate of affirmative action among right-wingers, especially in the US. The country will have to find ways of negotiating a minefield in which [the] very essence of being as postcolonial democracy is challenged.”
The barometer notes the period of monitoring national and provincial coalition governance has been “a mere nine months in duration and thus too short to make substantial findings regarding the quality of coalition governance”.
It states that local coalitions have seen reduced volatility compared with earlier years, however service delivery and governance remain inconsistent due to frequent coalition changes and blurred accountability.
“On the theme of stability and given that the provincial and national coalitions of the current epoch have commenced relatively recently, not much instability could be expected. However, the potential is there: the KwaZulu-Natal coalition government rules by a narrow margin, and Gauteng has a minority coalition in power that is dependent on confidence-and-supply support from the EFF.
“The Northern Cape with its ANC near-majority and an oversupply of loyal confidence-and-supply partners has reasonably guaranteed stability,” the report says.
“At the national level the contest for the heart of the governing coalition continues. These contests … constituted the core of policy and governance processes for 2024-25”.
“In the first place, the monitoring details show how challenging the ANC has found it to accept in its governance operations that coalition governance means power-sharing and sufficient consultation among partners.
“In many respects, it continued acting as if it held sole power. It used its biggest-party status to claim a right to govern with the level of authority it had held before.”
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