The ANC will face its most devastating loss yet in the next local government elections if it does not urgently address the cost-of-living crisis and service-delivery backlogs.
The DA’s polling, which has previously been accurate, suggests that if South Africans voted today, the ANC would not get more than 20% of the vote in Johannesburg.
With the DA putting forward its former leader, Helen Zille, as the party’s mayoral candidate for Johannesburg, the DA could emerge as the party with the most votes for the first time in SA’s financial hub.
The PA is also giving the DA a run for their money in Cape Town, which, according to the DA’s own polling, shows that the PA could win at least 8% of the vote in that metro.
According to the DA poll, the MK party could lose about 5% of the vote in eThekwini and if traditional ANC voters stay away from the polls again in that metro, it could make the IFP and DA the two biggest parties in KwaZulu-Natal.
Political analyst Susan Booysen says there is no reason to doubt the DA’s polling,
“The quality of the polling looks solid. There is definitely been a rise in support for the DA in urban centres in recent elections, and the party has benefited from ANC voters not coming out on election day,” Booysen said,
The DA is polling 1,000 people in metros every two weeks ahead of the next local government elections.
Electoral analyst Wayne Sussman says Zille being the DA’s mayoral candidate can only bode well for the party in Joburg.
“It is long way to go but I think the DA is already looking strong with the party already polling in Johannesburg with 38%, and that is before Zille is on the ground, which will further energise the party. However, the DA had better watch its back in Cape Town, with the PA winning over some coloured voters there, which is the majority of people in the City of Cape Town,” Sussman said.
Booysen said the government of national unity (GNU) was not why the ANC seemed to be losing support.
“The consistent rise of the DA and decline of the ANC is because of a combination of the image of the political parties themselves and a lack of service delivery where the ANC governs,” Booysen said.
ANC insiders who spoke to Business Day spoke did not dispute the outcome of the DA polling, with one Luthuli House staffer, who could only speak on condition off anonymity, admitting things could be worse.
“Our information shows the ANC could get as little as 12% [of the vote] in Johannesburg. The leadership of the province and city are accountable, as they refused the national leadership advice to enter a coalition with the DA,” the source said.
The ANC has shown a significant decline in its electoral support in urban centres, where the majority of the electorate is now based, since 2014 — something the party has struggled to recover from.
Since the 2021 local government elections, the ANC is more than 20 wards lighter in by-election results. If this pattern continues the ANC is likely to become a mostly rural party in the next decade.
“It is about getting ANC voters to the polls and giving them a reason to come out and vote ANC on election day,” the source added.
Voter turnout in SA’s national, provincial and municipal polls has been declining in the last decade, boosting support for smaller parties such as the DA in municipal elections, whose constituents loyally turn up.
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