Contract and low-skilled workers — who account for nearly half of SA’s coal workforce, especially in Mpumalanga municipalities — face the greatest risk as the country transitions to cleaner energy sources, a recent study by the University of Cape Town’s Future Water Institute finds.
The study, which analysed 47,000 workers across 33 coal mines using publicly available social and labour plans, tax records, and mine technical data, found that contract and semi-skilled employees are the most vulnerable. This is particularly in the Mpumalanga municipalities of Victor Khanye, Emalahleni, Steve Tshwete and Msukaligwa, where coal mining underpins local economies.
SA remains one of the world’s top coal producers and is heavily reliant on coal for electricity generation. With about 100,000 people directly employed in coal mining and power generation and more than 2.5-million living in coal-dependent communities, the transition away from fossil fuels poses significant social and economic challenges.
According to the UCT study, 43% of coal workers are contract employees with limited job security and fewer benefits, while over half the workforce is unskilled or semi-skilled, a profile that complicates retraining and re-employment prospects.
Main points:
- Contract and low-skilled workers make up nearly half of SA’s coal workforce and are most at risk.
- 43% of coal workers are contract employees with limited job security and fewer benefits.
- Mpumalanga towns like Emalahleni and Steve Tshwete are especially vulnerable to mine closures.
- Coal jobs pay 55% more than local averages, amplifying the impact of job losses.
- Up to 15 mines could close by 2030 and 23 more by 2040, risking major social disruption.
“Coal mine jobs pay 55% more than local averages, so retrenchments have a ripple effect on entire communities,” said Megan Cole, lead author of the study. “This makes the socioeconomic effect of mine closures particularly acute in the identified municipalities, which face concentrated transition risks.”
The study suggests SA’s national just transition narrative may be missing key local realities. Factors such as the projected lifespan of individual mines and the characteristics of affected communities, many of them being small towns with limited economic diversification.
“Each coal mine varies in its mix of thermal and metallurgical coal, the balance of permanent vs contract workers, and remaining reserves — all factors that could influence how and when closures occur,” said Cole.
The study projects that 15 mines could close by 2030, with another 23 winding down by 2040, “potentially creating a window for targeted economic diversification and social support programs.”
“The shift away from coal is inevitable given global climate imperatives, but it must be managed with a clear understanding of local realities to avoid deepening inequality and economic hardship,” Cole said.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.