Higher education minister Blade Nzimande says the sector is on track to achieve some of the crucial National Development Plan (NDP) targets, including increasing the number of university enrolments as well as graduates attaining doctorates or advanced qualifications.
But while the higher education sector may be on track to meet its targets, some graduates are struggling to find employment partly due to SA’s dismal economic growth which recently led to the unemployment rate hitting a record high of 35.3% before declining slightly to 34.5% in the first quarter of 2022. This low economic growth rate could have a long-term effect on tax revenue, meaning the government is likely to struggle to subsidise education and improve social protection, which are among the biggest spending items in the budget.
Nzimande said access to universities has grown substantially over the past 10 years, just more than 1.3-million students are enrolled at public and private universities. The country is on track to reach the NDP target of 1.6-million enrolments by 2030. This is in part due to the controversial government decision to phase in fully subsidised free higher education and training for poor and working-class students.
The NDP, a long-term plan articulating the country’s vision to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030, was adopted by the cabinet in 2012. It broadly proposes creating 11-million jobs by 2030 and reducing unemployment. To achieve some of these goals, the NDP notes that by 2030 GDP should have increased 2.7 times in real terms, which requires average annual GDP growth of 5.4% over the period.
However, SA has recorded abysmal growth rates for successive years, meaning that many of the key targets are unlikely to be met. The governing ANC admitted as much last week, stating that the country broadly will fail to meet most of the targets set out in the NDP, and blaming “low economic growth and the Covid-19 pandemic”.
But responding in writing to parliamentary questions from the DA last week, Nzimande painted a somewhat rosier picture of the higher education sector, saying it had made substantial progress in meeting the targets set by the NDP. The NDP envisages the tertiary education sector as a crucial part of the plan to reduce skills shortages that continue to stifle economic growth.
Nzimande said graduation rates at public universities have grown significantly. Student completions in 2021 show that 237,882 students completed a university qualification, against a target of 425,000 articulated in the NDP. Doctoral graduates constitute 3,552, while 12,652 attained an engineering qualification. SA has a severe critical skills shortage, especially in ICT, engineering and maths-related fields.
The NDP proposes that at least 75% of all academics in the tertiary sector should hold a PhD qualification, which will be crucial to improve the quality of teaching and management. Nzimande said currently 49.3% of university academic staff hold PhD degrees.
The minister said, however, the NDP target of 2.5-million enrolments in technical and vocational education training colleges [TVETs] is not likely to be met, in part due to a lack of funding. There are currently 452,277 students enrolled in TVET colleges, and the government has been pushing to increase this number to ease pressure on universities and deal with the shortage of artisans such as electricians, welders and mechanics.
“Similarly, the target of more students to be enrolled in TVET colleges compared to universities will not be met.... It should be noted that the achievement of the 2030 targets is directly linked to the availability of funding from the fiscus,” Nzimande said.
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