The Medical Research Council (MRC) has reported a sharp spike in natural deaths in Cape Town in the week to May 19, signalling the city’s deepening Covid-19 epidemic.
Natural deaths are those triggered by a disease such as cancer or an infection, and do not involve external causes such as accidents or murder.
The researchers compared the weekly numbers of natural and unnatural deaths with the trends observed in previous years. During the Covid-19 lockdown, non-natural deaths have been significantly lower than expected, due to fewer traffic accidents and homicides.
This trend continued during the week to May 19. But for the first time since the first case of Covid-19 was confirmed in SA on March 5, the weekly analysis has identified significant increases in natural deaths in Cape Town, Nelson Mandela Bay and the Western Cape.
“We are taking it as an early signal of the impact of Covid-19,” said the director of the MRC’s burden of disease unit, Debbie Bradshaw.
Western Cape is the province hardest hit by the disease, with about 65% of the more than 24,000 cases reported in SA so far. About half of the Western Cape’s cases are in the Cape Town metro.
Researchers have been closely monitoring trends in SA’s natural deaths because they are expected to provide the clearest picture of the impact of the pandemic on mortality. This is because limited testing capacity means official figures may undercount Covid-19 deaths, and there are extensive delays in Stats SA’s publication of data on the underlying causes of death recorded on death certificates. Stats SA’s detailed report on the underlying causes of deaths in 2017 was only published two months ago.
However, researchers have access to almost real-time data on natural and non-natural deaths for people with an SA ID number, as this information is swiftly captured on the population register managed by the department of home affairs, said Bradshaw. “It’s a really important tool to track trends: it can signal a health epidemic and its impact.”
The population register captures about 85% of the people living in SA.
The analysis excluded babies under the age of one.
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