A two-month ban on alcohol sales could potentially see 50,000 fewer trauma patients presenting at public hospitals, freeing up desperately needed staff and beds for treating thousands of extra Covid-19 cases, according to modelling by the Medical Research Council (MRC).
Public hospitals in several provinces are taking strain as the number of Covid-19 patients with severe illness soars. Gauteng has reported a three-fold increase in hospital admissions in the past fortnight, while Western Cape has already begun admitting patients to field hospitals specially built for Covid-19 patients.
The modelling was provided to the government last week as it weighed up introducing tighter restrictions on the sale of alcohol and the possible reintroduction of the evening curfew imposed during lockdown level 4.
MRC president Glenda Gray, speaking before President Cyril Ramaphosa announced an immediate alcohol ban and reinstatement of an evening curfew on Sunday, said there were several potential strategies for reducing the alcohol-related trauma load on hospitals, including bans or restrictions on the sale of alcohol, curfews to reduce evening traffic on the roads, or a combination of these approaches.
“There definitely is a correlation between night driving and alcohol-related accidents. I think a curfew and managing alcohol consumption together may be best, and if you can’t ban alcohol completely, restrict its use so people don’t drink and drive,” she said.
The MRC’s modelling found the reduction in trauma cases from a ban on alcohol sales would translate into 124,000 fewer bed days in general wards, 46,000 less ICU bed days, and save the government R1.3bn over an eight week period, said its alcohol, tobacco and drug research unit director Charles Parry.
Trauma cases include patients who are treated and sent home the same day and those who are admitted to hospital for longer stays. These savings would enable the treatment of about 17,755 Covid-19 patients in general wards, or 12,947 in ICU wards, he said. If trauma patient numbers were reduced, more staff could be deployed to care for those with Covid-19.
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“Even a drop of one-fifth of trauma cases would relieve pressure on doctors who could work on medical cases. Trauma cases are often complex cases, and patients are often drunk and difficult to deal with, said Parry.
Before the lockdown was imposed on March 27, SA’s public tertiary and secondary hospitals saw on average 42,700 trauma cases per week, half of which were alcohol-related, said Parry.
There are now about 34,000 trauma cases per week at SA’s about 400 tertiary and secondary public hospitals, of which about 17,000 are alcohol-related, said Parry.
The gains of an alcohol ban while SA remained on alert level 3 would not be as great as they were during levels 5 and 4, because there are no longer extensive restrictions on movement, said Parry. “Some people will have stocked up, but consumption will dry up over time. Based on expert opinion, we expect a 20% drop in alcohol-related trauma in the first week (of a ban on sales), a 30% drop in the second week, and a 40% drop by the third week — which is 20% of all trauma cases,” said Parry.
During alert level 5, alcohol sales were banned and all but essential workers were confined to their homes except for trips to buy groceries and seek medical care.
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