As the coronavirus plateaus in three provinces, health minister Zweli Mkhize has warned that SA could face a second wave of infections if people fail to stick to social distancing rules.
People should continue to wear masks, avoid large gatherings and maintain hygiene measures if the government was to ease restrictions on movement between provinces and free up more economic activity, he said.
SA has the world’s fifth highest number of recorded cases of Covid-19, which by Tuesday evening had topped 520,000.
Several indicators, including the seven-day rolling average of new cases, hospital admissions and the number of severely ill people presenting at hospitals with possible Covid-19, showed that Western Cape, Gauteng and Eastern Cape had surged and plateaued, said the minister.
But it was too soon to draw firm conclusions about whether infections in these provinces were declining, he said.
“The indications are that the containment measures are beginning to bear fruit and we may be over the peak by some time in August. But if we don’t insist on social distancing and masks, we can have a second surge,” he said in a media briefing on Wednesday morning.
The government’s assessment of the state of SA’s epidemic is supported by an analysis by SA’s biggest medical scheme administrator, Discovery Health. It has seen the seven day moving average of daily new hospital admissions for Covid-19 among its client medical schemes plateau and decline in Western Cape, Gauteng, Eastern Cape, according to CEO Ryan Noach. Gauteng saw a rapid surge in hospital admissions between mid-June and mid-July, followed by an equally swift decline in the second half of July, while Western Cape and Eastern Cape have seen a more gradual tapering off, he said.
"We are quite optimistic at the moment, but one has to be deeply cautious , because we could very easily have a resurgence as we have seen in the US, Israel and other countries," said Noach. "People should not be lulled into a sense of complacency. We have to maintain stringent social distancing and hygiene measures," he said.
Referring to the gap between official Covid-19 death figures and the number of excess deaths reported by the Medical Research Council (MRC), Mkhize said fewer coronavirus deaths had been reported than expected, and it was likely that those occurring at home were not being recorded. To address his problem, Covid-19 testing would from now on be required for all home deaths, he said.
The MRC’s weekly death reports have highlighted a growing gap between the number of excess natural deaths and official Covid-19 death figures. Natural deaths are those caused by diseases or conditions such as cancer, while excess deaths refers to the difference between the number of recorded deaths and what might have been expected had Covid-19 not occurred.
The latest MRC report, released on Wednesday, estimates that there were 28,329 excess deaths between May 6 and July 28, a figure almost four times higher than the official Covid-19 death tally, which stood at 7,257 on July 28.
Mkhize also announced that the World Health Organisation (WHO) was sending a team of experts to SA to shore up its response to the coronavirus pandemic. The 43-member team includes infectious disease expert David Heymann, who headed the WHO’s response to the SARS epidemic in 2003.
The surge team will be jointly led by the WHO’s regional director for Africa, Matshidiso Moeti, and the executive director of its health emergencies programme, Michael Ryan.
Update: August 5 2020
This story has been updated with more recent figures.
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