For the first time in three months, the weekly number of deaths reported in SA has fallen, adding weight to the government’s assessment that the coronavirus outbreak has plateaued in several provinces.
The Medical Research Council’s (MRC’s) latest weekly report, released on Wednesday, shows a sharp downturn in natural deaths in the week of July 28. Natural deaths are those caused by diseases or conditions such as cancer, and are routinely tracked by health authorities to identify trends and disease outbreaks.
The weekly number of natural deaths reported in the Western Cape has been steadily declining since early June, but for the first time a sharp drop has been reported in Gauteng and Eastern Cape.
“There is a definite indication of a turn in Gauteng and Eastern Cape, but we would certainly want to wait at least another two weeks to conclude it is a downward trend,” said report co-author Debbie Bradshaw, who heads the MRC’s burden of disease research unit.
Declines in natural deaths were also reported in KwaZulu-Natal, the North West and the Northern Cape.
The report shows the weekly number of natural deaths more than doubled from 7,879 in the week of May 6 to 15,403 in the week of July 21, but fell to 14,655 in the week of July 28.
Earlier in the day, health minister Zweli Mkhize said coronavirus infections have peaked in the Western Cape, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape. Several indicators, including the seven-day rolling average of new cases and the number of new hospital admissions, showed infections in these provinces had surged and plateaued, but it is too soon to tell if they are on a downward trajectory, he said.
It is estimated in the MRC’s latest report there were 28,329 “excess” deaths from May 6 to July 28, a figure almost four times higher than the official Covid-19 death toll, which stood at 7,257 on July 28.
Excess deaths usually refer to an increase in deaths above historic levels, or the difference between the number of recorded deaths and what might have been expected had Covid-19 not occurred.
The MRC has gone a step further and adjusted the baseline against which it has compared the number of reported natural deaths, to take account of a reduction in natural deaths observed during the early stages of the hard lockdown that put SA on an unusually low trajectory.
Comparing reported deaths to historic trends would have underestimated the true effect of the pandemic, it said.
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