The Medical Research Council’s (MRC) latest mortality report shows the number of natural deaths has fallen for the third week in a row, adding further weight to previous signs that SA’s coronavirus epidemic may have peaked.
Natural deaths are those caused by diseases such as Covid-19, or conditions such as cancer, and are routinely tracked to monitor disease outbreaks.
The weekly number of natural deaths in SA has fallen from a peak of 15,567 in the week ending July 21 to 12,113 in the week ending August 11, according to the report.
“Last week we said there were hopeful signs, and that definitely continues,” said report co-author Debbie Bradshaw, director of the MRC’s burden of disease unit.
Deaths from natural causes declined in all the provinces except Northern Cape, and in all the metros except Mangaung. “What is quite clear is the epidemic has unfolded in different ways and with different timing across the country. The Northern Cape is the only place that hasn’t shown a consistent downward trend yet, but it is obviously a very small part of the population,” she said.
Despite the downward trajectory, the weekly number of natural deaths continues to be significantly higher than usual, and the researchers estimate there were 36,587 excess deaths from natural causes in people over the age of one between May 6 and August.
The MRC’s comparison of the number of natural deaths in the week ending August 11 to its predicted number from historical data shows Free State had 98% more, Gauteng had 50% more, Northern Cape and North West had 47% more, KwaZulu-Natal had 42% more, Eastern Cape had 38% more, Mpumalanga had 28% more, Western Cape had 16% more and Limpopo had 7% more.
The MRC’s estimate of excess deaths to August 11 is 3.4 times higher than the official Covid-19 death toll of 10,751 reported by health minister Zweli Mkhize on August 11.
The MRC said the gap between reported Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths suggested some fatalities caused by the disease were not being reported, though some extra deaths could be expected because people were afraid or unable to seek health care at health facilities.
It called on Stats SA and the department of home affairs to fast-track the processing of the detailed death notification forms completed by doctors, which at present take three years to analyse. Stats SA published its analysis of deaths in 2017 only in March this year.
The latest MRC report shows the number of deaths from unnatural causes, such as traffic accidents and murder, remained steady and did not show the usual month-end increase in July. The number of non-natural deaths (777) was 23% below the expected number for the week ending August 11.
Bradshaw said it was not clear why the number of non-natural deaths was lower than usual, as multiple factors could be at play. In addition to the temporary ban on alcohol sales, which was lifted on Tuesday, it was possible that fewer people were being paid at the end of the month. The curfew and less traffic on the roads might also play a role, she said.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.