The weekly number of non-natural deaths, which include those caused by traffic accidents and murder, has risen sharply since the government moved SA to lockdown level 2 and permitted alcohol sales to resume, the SA Medical Research Council’s (MRC’s) latest mortality report reveals.
The report shows there were 1,112 non-natural deaths in the week starting August 19, compared to 827 deaths the week before. Alcohol sales resumed on August 18.
Further research was needed to establish the precise role of alcohol in the uptick in non-natural deaths, as other factors such as increased mobility could also be at play, said report co-author Tom Moultrie, professor of demography at the University of Cape Town.
The MRC’s alcohol, tobacco and other drug research unit director Charles Parry, who is not part of the team that produces the weekly mortality reports, said alcohol was likely to be a significant contributor to the increase in non-natural deaths. The renewed sale of alcohol was a significant change since the move to level 2.
The evening curfew, which effectively limits the number of pedestrians and cars on the roads, remains in place. Several large hospitals in the Western Cape and Gauteng had reported a significant increase in trauma cases after alcohol sales resumed, he said.
The MRC report also shows a marked slowdown in the month-long decline in natural deaths, which are those caused by diseases such as Covid-19 and cancer. The total number of natural deaths fell to 10,679 in the week starting August 19, from 10,871 the week before.
Researchers have been closely monitoring trends in SA’s natural deaths because they provide insight into the effect of the coronavirus pandemic. At their peak, during the week starting July 15, the number of weekly natural deaths stood at 15,607.
“The trend has been strongly downward for several weeks. It might be a blip, or a sign of a long-run out. We will have to wait another week,” said Moultrie. Mortality trends in many other countries showed a “long tail”, with the pace of the decline in death numbers slowing as the coronavirus epidemic unfolded.
The report shows a slight increase in natural deaths in the week starting August 19 in several metros, including Cape Town, Nelson Mandela Bay, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane. The biggest increase was in Cape Town, where natural deaths rose to 632, compared to 562 the week before.
The MRC estimates there were 41,424 excess deaths between May 6 and August 24, a figure more than three times greater than the official Covid-19 death tally of 13,159 reported by the health minister on August 24.
Excess deaths include those directly attributable to Covid-19 and those occurring from other natural causes that could not be treated or prevented because there were constraints on health services, or people were afraid to seek care.
The gap is not unique to SA, as in official Covid-19 death reports worldwide the true extent of the disease tends to be underestimated because they only reflect deaths occurring in facilities where patients have been tested.
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