SA could return to a "relatively normal" life if the most vulnerable people received coronavirus vaccines within the next few months, Wits vaccinologist Shabir Madhi said on Tuesday.
"We are not trying to get rid of this virus. What we are trying to do is reduce pressure on our health-care system and reduce the number of people dying. If we can get 15-million people vaccinated in the next four months, SA could get back to a relatively normal life despite ongoing circulation of the virus," he said in a virtual event hosted by financial services group PSG.
Madhi’s proposed target is more ambitious than that set by the government but is broadly in line with its strategy, which prioritises older and more vulnerable people.
The health department estimates vaccinating 5.5-million people aged over 60 could save 40,000 lives, according to documents presented to parliament last week. It aims to inoculate 16.6-million people between mid-May and mid-October, starting with the oldest.
The goal of vaccination should be to reduce deaths from the disease to a similar level to influenza, said Madhi. Flu killed about 11,500 people a year between 2013 and 2015, according to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases.
"Covid-19 is not going to disappear. It will be with us for our lifetime. It is really about minimising its impact," he said.
SA’s Covid-19 death toll relative to the size of its population was among the worst in the world, he said. SA ranked 11th, with a Covid-19 death rate of close to 190 per 100,000 population, higher than Spain, Italy, the UK and US, he said.
"SA has not been spared, despite the huge amount of restrictions that have been placed on society," he said.
The official death toll from Covid-19 stands at 53,736, but experts agree this is an undercount. The Medical Research Council estimates there have been 153,668 excess natural deaths since May 2020, the vast majority due to Covid-19. Natural deaths are those caused by infectious diseases or conditions such as cancer, while excess deaths reflect the number of deaths above the range forecast from the pattern in previous years. A conservative estimate would put the number of Covid-19 deaths at 70% of the excess deaths, close to triple the official count, said Madhi.
He said it was unclear how long vaccine-induced protection would last but said he was optimistic it would endure for at least two or three years.
One of the big open questions was whether the coronavirus would continue to evolve in a manner that required regularly updated vaccines, said Madhi. "If we face a scenario with ongoing evolution of the virus, then the focus is on preventing severe illness and death and targeting high-risk groups rather than trying to get to herd immunity."
Health minister Zweli Mkhize said on Tuesday night that 343,420 people over the age of 60 had signed up for the Covid-19 vaccination since the government’s electronic registration system opened for them on Friday afternoon.
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