The Western Cape is bracing for a third wave of Covid-19 infections to hit the province in two to three weeks time if the upward trajectory of daily new cases continues.
“We are experiencing resurgence, but not a third wave yet. Number of daily new Covid-19 cases has increased further to an average 200 new diagnosis each day with a 25% week on week increase,” Western Cape head of health Keith Cloete said during a media briefing on Thursday.
He said admissions and deaths continue to increase, but the absolute numbers are still small. On average the province had 30 to 35 admissions and four deaths each day.
The national government has pointed out that the country is technically not in a third wave, but acknowledges that certain regions have already hit the threshold.
Experts fear that the slow pace of SA’s vaccine rollout, the dominance of the new and transmissible variant, and the onset of winter could combine to deadly effect. Estimates suggest that the vaccination drive will be completed only in the first quarter of 2022.
Cloete said the resurgence monitor now shows a sustained increase for 12 days in the number of new cases, so the province remains in a resurgence state.
“We have not yet met the criteria for being in a third wave, but we could enter a third wave in two to three weeks time if the current trajectory continues,” Cloete said.
He said SA Covid-19 Modelling Consortium — which provides regular projections for the government to guide the response to the pandemic — predicts a third wave that will be smaller than the second wave in the Western Cape but there is lots of uncertainty, especially if different variants emerge.
The consortium’s most optimistic scenario for SA as a whole projects 11,100 Covid-19 hospital admissions and 7,800 Covid-19 deaths during the third wave, a fraction of those seen in SA’s two previous waves.
But these figures rise almost tenfold to 100,500 and 70,200, respectively, in the worst-case scenario, in which the response is “slow” and “weak”. Even so, these figures are lower than the first and second waves. The consortium recently highlighted that it takes about two to three months for an increase in transmission to reach a peak.
Cloete said a “strong” response and an uninterrupted vaccine programme would dramatically reduce the number of hospital admissions and deaths.
“Behaviour change is key to mitigate the third wave. We can delay the onset until more people are vaccinated,” Cloete said.
He called on the Western Cape community to flatten the curve by ensuring consistent social distancing, mask wearing, hand hygiene, and avoiding all non-essential gatherings.
With Tamar Kahn
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