As the debate rages globally as to whether the emergence of the Omicron variant, which has proved to be less severe than previous strains, means that Covid-19 has now become endemic, the DA-run Western Cape government has joined calls for the state of disaster to end.
“During the fourth wave, we have seen a growing gap or ‘decoupling’ between the high number of cases, and relatively low number of admissions and deaths compared to previous waves,” Western Cape premier Alan Winde said during a news conference on Thursday, echoing a party call from earlier in the week.
While that view has increasingly become popular, the scientific community is divided on whether Covid-19, which has a global death toll approaching 6-million, has reached an endemic stage. An infectious disease is said to be endemic when it is viewed to be circulating at an acceptable rate and can be managed without social restrictions, such as with the flu.
Proponents of this stance argue that there is clear evidence that many have gained immune protection from vaccination and from natural infection, which should reduce transmission, severe illness and death.
Winde said provincial health experts have found that while there were 14% more cases than the third wave peak, new admissions are only at 63% of that stage while deaths stand at only 24% of the previous peak.
“This is attributed to high levels of protection among the general population as a result of vaccines and prior infection. There is also some early data suggesting Omicron may be less severe than Delta,” the premier said. “This is clear evidence that Covid-19 has reached an ‘endemic’ stage, and it supports normalising our response, which must be done by ending the national state of disaster.”
It has been renewed monthly since March 2020 at the start of the global pandemic, and the latest one is due to expire on Saturday, which would see the disappearance of existing restrictions such as the legal requirement to wear face coverings in confined spaces. While the restrictions can be said to be proportionate, some have argued that a perpetual state of disaster goes against the principles of the constitutional democracy.
Some experts, including at the World Health Organization (WHO), have argued that it would be overly complacent to use the experience with Omicron to argue that the virus had now reached a permanent, endemic stage. There was still too much unknown about its development and the danger of new variants emerging remains high, especially with parts of the world not having had access to vaccines, and others plagued by hesitancy.
About 10% of Africa’s population has been fully vaccinated, compared with about 90% in some developed nations such as Australia. To reach its target of inoculating 70% of the population, the WHO said on Thursday the number of Africans being inoculated would need to climb to 34-million people a week, from 6-million now, to reach the goal.
“The next wave might not be so forgiving,” Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO’s regional director for Africa, said. The organisation noted that Africa’s fourth pandemic wave is flattening, having been shorter than previous ones.
At his briefing, Winde also called for a full return to school for all learners in all grades.
“The consequences of not doing so, especially when noting this new health data, will be catastrophic for the future of our young people, especially for those in poorer communities. It must come to an end before Western Cape schools return next week,” Winde said. With Bloomberg
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