The coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 300,000 excess natural deaths in SA, with a disproportionate toll exacted among people aged 60 years or above, according to the latest figures from the Medical Research Council (MRC).
The MRC publishes a weekly mortality report based on death records from the department of home affairs, and tracks the number of natural and unnatural deaths.
Excess deaths are those that fall outside a forecast range calculated from historical, pre-pandemic data. Natural deaths are those caused by infections, age, and conditions such as heart disease or cancer, while unnatural deaths are those due to violence and accidents.
The latest report, published on Wednesday, found there had been just over 301,000 excess natural deaths between May 3 2020 and March 5 2022, slightly more than triple the government’s official figure of 99,543 recorded Covid-19 deaths as of March 5. The MRC estimates between 85% and 95% of the excess natural deaths are due to Covid-19, said MRC researcher Debbie Bradshaw, one of the report’s co-authors.
Almost three quarters (221,600) of the excess natural deaths occurred in people aged 60 years or older, reflecting the increasing risk of severe disease with age. “The impact has very much been felt among older people. It is not to say younger people didn’t get sick, but the death rates have been much higher among the elderly,” said Bradshaw.
The latest report, published on Wednesday, shows the number of natural deaths for people under the age of 60 years is tracking within the forecast range, but it remains above the prediction bounds for older people, even as SA emerges from its fourth wave of coronavirus infections.
The majority (203,500) of the excess natural deaths occurred in 2021.
“The impact of Covid-19 in 2021 was extremely high. It had the tail end of Beta, Delta, and the beginning of Omicron,” said Bradshaw, referring to the three successive waves of coronavirus infections that occurred in 2021, each driven by a different variant.
The MRC estimated there were 506 excess natural deaths per 100,000 population, a rate among the worst in the world.
There are wide provincial variations, reflecting disparities in wealth and access to health services as well as varying population structure. Provinces with a high proportion of rural residents have older populations than those with more urban dwellers. The MRC estimated the excess natural death rate ranges from range from 377 per 100,000 population in Gauteng to 790 per 100,000 in the Eastern Cape.
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