SA scientist Prof Debra Roberts says her nomination to lead the world’s top scientific advisory panel on climate change is a “real endorsement of the climate science being done [in Africa]”.
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific group assembled by the UN to monitor and assess all global science related to climate change, will elect its new chair at a meeting in Kenya later in July.
Roberts is the acting head of the sustainability and resilient city initiatives unit at the eThekwini Municipality and a co-chair for one of the IPCC working groups.
If Roberts, one of four nominees, is successful she will become the first person from Africa and the first women to lead the IPCC.
Her nomination, said Roberts, was an indication that African climate science is of a world quality standard, and that the continent’s scientists are seen as capable leaders.
“It is also an important acknowledgment that the scientific community is changing and that [the IPCC] needs to attract a broader range of volunteers into the assessment process. We are very much aware of the fact that science, and particularly climate science, has long been dominated by the global north, and a strong preponderance of men — only 30% of authors are women.”
Should she be chosen to lead the IPCC it will serve as “a beacon to female scientists” and encourage more women to volunteer for this work.
IPCC runs in assessment cycles of five to seven years. Roberts participated in the fourth assessment cycle as a lead author and she is now the current co-chair of the IPCC Working Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability for the sixth assessment cycle.
The work of the IPCC is intended to provide government policymakers with regular scientific assessments on the latest state of knowledge about climate change.
But, said Roberts, the IPCC’s work has become more influential. “In fifth assessment cycle our audience was largely government, now [with the sixth assessment] you see our reports being used by everyone from activists to business leaders. Our work has become very present in social discussion.”
According to Roberts one of the key messages to come out of the Sixth Assessment Cycle Synthesis Report is that current global emissions and development choices mean “we are not in the path to achieving a sustainable and equitable future”.
“There has been progress across adaptation and mitigation it simply isn’t enough. Even though there are solutions available we are not implementing it at scale and fast enough. We have a very narrow window of opportunity, which is closing rapidly.”
Probably the most important figure in the report is that global emissions must be reduced by 60% by 2035.
“The assessment showed it is doable, but it will take an unprecedented level of ambition from all countries to achieve. If we stay on the current path, it is more likely than not that we will cross 1.5˚C during the first half of the 2030s. The science is clear about the consequences of doing that and those consequences are extremely severe for the poor and vulnerable so it should be of great concern particularly for Africa,” she said.
This again highlights the significance of having some from Africa at the helm of the IPCC.
At COP27 in Egypt in 2022, representatives from SA and other African countries worked towards the advancement of discussions on the “special needs and conditions for Africa”.
Minister of forestry, fisheries and environment Barbara Creecy said at the time that SA and its negotiating partners believed special conditions should also apply because Africa had contributed less than 4% to the build-up of global emissions — yet the continent is one of those most heavily affected by climate change.
One of the most important decisions to come out of COP27 was to establish a loss and damage fund, particularly for nations most vulnerable to the climate crisis.
The fund is expected to see developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of the climate crisis supported for losses arising from disasters that are attributed to climate change.
Negotiations will continue at COP28 in Dubai later in 2023 to determine who should pay into the fund, where this money will come from, and which countries will benefit.
The IPCC’s sixth assessment report will also help inform the UN’s 2023 global stocktake (an assessment of countries’ progress towards achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement) that will form part of the COP28 proceedings.
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