As COP29 draws near, the world’s focus has shifted to nations struggling to fulfil their climate commitments, including SA.
The conference, taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11-22, may represent one of the last opportunities for countries to commit to substantial climate actions.
Climatologist Sarah Roffe warns of the shrinking window to mitigate climate changes: “This is perhaps one of the last times we can take meaningful action to reduce emissions and avoid irreversible changes.”
SA, with a legacy of heavy reliance on coal, finds itself at a critical crossroads, striving to balance its energy demands with global environmental obligations.
The urgency is underscored by the legally binding Paris Agreement, which mandates efforts to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C.
Each nation, including SA, is expected to update its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2025, outlining commitments to emissions reduction and climate adaptation.
These NDCs are crucial benchmarks for SA’sclimate strategy in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Though participation is encouraged, NDCs remain voluntary and without legal repercussions for noncompliance.
Despite SA’s commitments, recent data from Climate Analytics casts doubt on the country’s ability to meet these targets under existing policies.
Coal, which constitutes 85% of the national power supply, remains a formidable barrier to achieving climate goals.
SA’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which extends the use of coal, starkly contradicts international calls for a coal phase-out by 2030.
Roffe says without a definitive timeline for phasing out coal, it will be challenging to avoid further delays. “If we cannot agree on a target date for coal phase-out, it’s likely that later target dates will continue to be postponed. Phasing out coal should be a priority, especially for a country like SA, which is among the hardest-hit by climate change.”
In November 2023, global temperatures surpassed the critical 2°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record, intensifying calls for immediate action.
“What should be recognised about the November exceedance is that we were in an El Niño event ... but if we see this kind of anomaly again outside an El Niño, it would be very concerning,” Roffe says.
Temperatures here are rising almost twice as fast as the global average, which means we’re especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
“Temperatures here are rising almost twice as fast as the global average, which means we’re especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Southern Africa is experiencing increasingly severe weather events.”
The Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2024 report underscores the urgency, revealing that the past nine years have been the hottest on record. The financing gap remains one of the most formidable obstacles for developing nations.
Emerging markets and developing economies receive limited climate financing despite their heightened vulnerability. China, for instance, dominates climate finance investment, but Sub-Saharan Africa lags significantly behind, leaving SA and other nations struggling to fund ambitious climate projects effectively.
During his opening remarks at the National Stakeholder Consultations for the UNFCCC’s COP29, environment, forestry and fisheries minister Dion George underscored the critical need for increased financing and capacity-building support.
“Access to finance must be scaled up to offer predictable funding that is fit for purpose,” he said. He envisions COP29 as a potential turning point where innovative financing models might emerge, advocating for predictable and accessible funding essential for countries such as SA to meet their climate goals.
As COP29 unfolds, it is likely to serve as a litmus test for SA and other nations’ commitment to actionable climate policies.
Roffe, while hopeful, remains candid: “I wish that SA could be more proactive in implementing policies ... I just hope we can put more measures in place that contribute to adaptation and resilience as well as reduce our carbon footprint.”
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