OVER the past couple of months I’ve been on a road trip that has taken me to several African countries. Everywhere I’ve gone, people want to talk about the upcoming US presidential election. Like everyone else in the world, Africans want to know how Donald Trump wound up as the presumptive Republican nominee and whether he could win. Given some of Trump’s wild assertions about building walls, barring Muslims, reneging on trade deals and escalating the nuclear arms race, the concern is well based.
While Africa has not featured in any presidential debate so far, we have significant transnational security issues that can’t be dealt with sans Africa, as well as economic challenges that can’t be met without engaging Africa. As al-Qaeda and Islamic State (Isis) have become more diffuse, the help of African partners is going to become even more critical.
On the economic front, the US has designated graphite a strategically important material and Africa has what might be the world’s largest reserves of this resource, which is critical given that China is the world’s number one producer of graphite.
Having spent more than two decades tracking countries on the continent, let me suggest several things the next American president should consider if the US is going to get what we’re doing in Africa right.
While on the surface it might seem our biggest challenge is how we engage dictatorial regimes in Africa, that’s the easy part. Our biggest challenge is how we engage Africa’s democracies. With dictatorial regimes, the US position is as obvious as it needs to be clear and consistent — the cost for any substantive engagement is democratisation and a development programme to lift people out of poverty.
We need to limit engagement and increase the use of sanctions on dictators and their friends to further this end.
More challenging is how we engage and encourage the 16 African countries that have made considerable progress furthering the cause of democracy.
These 16 countries have an aggregate population of more than 700-million people, which represents nearly three quarters of the people in sub-Saharan Africa. The standard of living is being raised in these countries and governments are being held accountable. These "anchor states" have the potential to push the rest of the continent towards more progressive policies.
Rather than trying to offer a laundry list of things we might do to further US strategic interests and African growth and development, let me suggest a framework that should inform whatever policies and programmes we put forward.
The first thing we need to do is fashion a comprehensive and coherent framework for engaging Africa’s democracies. The day is past when high-profile "gimmick" programmes can punctuate our seriousness about furthering democracy and development in Africa or make us competitive with countries like China.
The best example of what I mean was what we saw during the Bush administration, when the US policy agenda had a number of complementary components: health and welfare; military assistance and co-operation; development (the Millennium Challenge Initiative) and trade (Agoa). One set of policy prescriptions complemented the other. Such an approach moves us beyond paternalism to partnership, which is best for us and great for Africa.
Second on the list is the need for a different diplomatic protocol in engaging African leaders and governments when we have points of contention and concern. What do I mean? The US (and other Western governments) call on African leaders to run elections as democrats, yet then rule as dictators when we have a problem.
Time and time again US leaders make the point relative to Africa that viable democracies require strong constitutions and institutions, not strong men. Yet all too often when we have a problem we insist the president step in and deal with it rather than allowing constitutional and regulatory processes to run their course.
Finally, we need sound research and data to engage effectively. Through my company’s consulting group, I was approached by a UK firm to help them develop a strategic plan to compete for market share in the cold power sector in Africa. In doing an analysis of the competitive environment, I first wanted to know what US companies were doing in this space. Given the emphasis on technology, this is an area in which the US ought to be competing. However, the most comprehensive state report I came across was one produced by the US Department of Commerce. It covered six countries, only one of which was in Africa.
If there is any place on the planet in which US firms ought to be seeking a niche in this area, it should be Africa. Nowhere is the need or market potential greater, since 30% of African produce spoils before it gets to market. Cold power could reverse this.
In addition, medicine desperately needed across the continent can’t be shipped because of inadequate refrigeration during transport. Then there are the environmental considerations. The potential to reduce carbon admissions is tremendous with an upgrade to cold power technology. Given all of the reasons US companies ought to be vying for market share in Africa, what we know about the market and its potential is lacking, to say the least.
On the humanitarian side, the US has demonstrated it has equally damning, though different, problems. As it tried to mobilise American resources and global co-operation to tackle the Ebola "epidemic", we blew it. The analysis regarding the extent of the threat in no way reflected the reality. It caused panic and wreaked havoc. Case in point: the US had more Ebola cases than SA, but because of the inaccurate assessments of the Centre for Disease Control, SA lost hundreds of millions of dollars in tourism.
If Africans are to believe we take them seriously, our data and analysis ought to reflect it, and when we get it wrong we need to say it. I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to suggest this framework is exhaustive, but it is indicative of what we need to be doing if we’re going to get Africa right.
• Stith served as the US ambassador to Tanzania during the Clinton Administration and is a member of Africa Advisory Committee of the US Trade Representative
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