The African Union (AU) is pushing ahead with its ambitious plan to integrate the continent despite doubts that it will work. Africa, with 55 countries, is the most fragmented continent with the most fractured border crossings. Trade among African countries remains shockingly low.
Sceptics of the AU’s regional integration efforts point to the EU’s woes. They argue that because the integration project is faltering in Europe, it is also likely to fail in Africa.
Some observers suggest that the EU is on the brink of imploding, destroying the euro and sparking economic doom.
AU Commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said in October, the AU’s project would be a success. Agenda 2063, its 50-year continental vision to advance regional integration, "will work because the first draft didn’t come from governments, but from the wider society", she said at the 20th anniversary of the South African National Editors’ Forum in Johannesburg.
She said 30 countries on the continent had included Agenda 2063 in their national plans, underscoring the commitment of most African leaders to integrate and promote the development of the continent.
"Agenda 2063 should be part of the DNA of every country on the continent ... goods must move freely, people must move freely. It’s important to integrate," said Dlamini-Zuma.
Agenda 2063 was set in motion in 2013 to provide a vision and strategic framework for achieving African development over the next 50 years. The AU has grand plans to integrate the continent, chief among them the Tripartite Free Trade Area, which seeks to connect the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), the East African Community, and the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa, creating a free trade area and allowing citizens to move freely.
A recent Afrobarometer survey notes that across 36 countries, 56% of Africans say they should be able to move freely across international borders to trade or work in other countries. But in 15 countries, less than half of citizens support free crossborder movement. Support is strongest in West and East Africa and weakest in North Africa.
The survey has found that while a majority of Africans favour free movement across borders for work and trade, 51% find it "difficult" or "very difficult" to cross international borders in order to work or trade.
Economic Growth
Arthur Kamp, an investment economist at Sanlam, says regional integration could bring about strong economic growth across the continent.
"The downside is when you have free trade, jobs might be destroyed in particular countries ... with regionalisation countries [giving] up some of their autonomy, especially if one single currency is introduced," he says.
Kamp adds that introducing a single currency in Africa is likely to create imbalances similar to those in the EU. The adverse consequences of the euro include sovereign debt crises in several European countries, the fragile condition of major European banks and the large trade deficits that continue to plague most eurozone countries.
Sadc Banking Association manager Maxine Hlaba says immigration issues will take centre stage in the debate on African regional integration. Concern about immigration arguably has been a decisive factor in the Brexit vote.
"Unfortunately, with the xenophobic incidents we saw in SA and in Zambia, I do not see borders going down in a hurry," says Hlaba. But she believes integration is crucial for Africa’s economic growth.
What remains unclear is whether there is sufficient commitment among all African countries to support the AU’s integration efforts
— IS There Enough commitment?
Writing in Harvard’s Africa Policy Journal earlier in 2016, Mary-Jean Nleya says the lessons Africa can learn from the EU are to have the correct political leadership and to sensitise the citizenry to the benefits of inclusivity and openness. "Opening Africa to itself, through deeper regional integration, has untapped economic benefits. The continent is highly fragmented, with regulatory hurdles as well as institutional inadequacies, which raise transaction costs when trading and conducting business within Africa. However, despite the prospective benefits, there are still great strides needed to make integration a positive reality."
What remains unclear is whether there is sufficient commitment among all African countries to support the AU’s integration efforts.
In a 2011 working paper, Trudi Hartzenberg, executive director of Tralac, argues that there are few success stories on regional integration.
Africa’s plans are ambitious schemes with unrealistic timeframes for achieving deeper integration and, in some cases, political union, she says.
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