"International trade cannot substitute for technological change, so those who depend on it as their major hope are doomed to frustration." This was the conclusion of economist Sir Arthur Lewis in a series of seminal lectures on the "evolution of the international trade order", in which he explained the positive implications for trade once industrialisation takes shape.
Tracing the history of industrialisation in developed countries, with the aim of extracting lessons that could be applied to developing countries, he argued that "international trade became an engine of growth in the 19th century, but not its proper role. The engine of growth should be technological change, with international trade serving as lubricating oil and not as fuel."
Countries’ industrialisation paths are subject to their individual nuances, but achieving such a revolution is paramount.
What is the status of technological change in Africa?
Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa — who make up about 80% of those working farmlands on the continent — have been slow to adopt new technologies. A 2008 World Bank study says links can be drawn between the low levels of agricultural technology adoption and productivity.
Sub-Saharan Africa holds a significant share of the world’s mineral reserves. The African Union (AU) has consistently called for the beneficiation of minerals to take place on the continent. However, this policy has had uneven outcomes, with some success in countries like Botswana and SA, while others have lagged. The UN Economic Commission for Africa found that countries such as Zambia, SA and Morocco have managed to improve their share of processed agricultural exports, while others — notably landlocked and least developed countries — continue to produce and export primary commodities, in the main.
This evidence of low levels of technology adoption in agriculture illustrates that the agricultural and industrial revolutions are yet to be achieved on the continent.
Have African policy makers learnt from the global history of these revolutions?
The AU and its member states have committed to trade arrangements intended to advance industrialisation among the continent’s regional economic communities. The 1991 Abuja Treaty committed members to establishing an African Economic Community by 2028.
This end goal is expected to be reached through the achievement of several milestones including the establishment of free trade areas, followed by customs unions in each regional economic community.
The final phase would result in an African Common Market where policies across sectors would be harmonised, including those for "tariff and nontariff systems … with a view to establishing a continental customs union".
Some of the latest efforts to boost intra-African trade include the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA).
A decision to launch discussions towards a Continental Free Trade Area was made in January 2012, which aimed for its establishment in 2017.
According to an AU report, "the Continental Free Trade Area provides a lever that can be used to strategically position the continent to exploit its numerous trade and investment opportunities and contribute positively towards the structural transformation of African economies".
This outlook — also presented in the TFTA — illustrates the continent’s view that trade can promote industrialisation.
These agreements should be complemented by the requisite conditions that would enable agricultural and industrial revolutions, so that the benefits of these trade policies could be better exploited.
There is some recognition that industrialisation is paramount to delivering the benefits sought from trade.
For example, the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) industrialisation roadmap explains that Southern Africa has decided "to implement effective strategies to boost the productive capacity of our industries, supported by enabling infrastructure to leverage industrialisation, technological advancement and appropriate skills development to effectively utilise market opportunities offered by trade liberalisation".
Though it is important to participate in the global trade system and ensure progress on intra-African trade, the emphasis should be on the pace of technological advancement.
This should particularly be the case in agriculture, a sector responsible for more than half of the employment and one-fifth of the gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Such advances would constitute the foundations upon which trade can work for African citizens and economies. If not, the continental trade agenda could become a vacuous policy that does not meet expectations and produce results that enhance structural transformation.
• Nkosi is a public affairs professional working in Brussels, specialised in EU-Africa trade as well as intra-African trade. She tweets at @nkosiz
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