The good ship South Africa has run aground, but we fool ourselves if we think that corruption is the only reason. In fact, the hole in the fiscus created by corruption has exposed an even harsher truth, which is that we are fast running out of the skills needed to sustain economic growth and development.
Only a quarter of the labour force is skilled, just fractionally up from 1994 levels. More alarming is Statistics SA’s finding that the proportion of black African 25 to 34-year-olds who are skilled – the very group that should have benefited most from democracy – has not improved at all.
New political leadership could get the good ship off today’s painfully jagged rocks, but it will continue to list in the doldrums until there is a fundamental correction in the country’s charted course. Commentators have pointed to the R1-trillion corporate treasure-chest, apparently just waiting to be deployed in an investor-friendly environment. When the tide turns, it is hoped that the combination of this cash and new labour-absorptive strategies will put the wind in our sails. Certainly they will give new impetus to a flailing economy, but on their own they are not the lodestar for national prosperity.
Let me map the current course in terms of human capital development. About a million children enter school each year. By Grade 4, half of them will already be off track and will drop out before completing school. Fewer than 40% will complete Grade 12, and only half of these will go to university or vocational colleges. Ultimately, only one in six of those who started school will receive a post-school diploma or degree. Small wonder the unemployment rate among young people is more than 50%.
Much attention is focused at the end of the human capital pipeline where — despite a small skills and tax base — fees must fall and jobs must arise. However, drop-out and failure rates of close to 50% in universities and technical and vocational education and training (TVET) colleges mean that R5 of every R10 invested in new entrants to these institutions is wasted. The reality is that most school leavers in SA are not equipped for success.
It is time that the focus shifts to the source of human capital, namely young children. The optimal skills trajectory for every person is set in the first few years of life, when they receive the basic inputs of love, safety, food and stimulation. Love and safety prime the child’s mind to be open and curious. Good nutrition grows the brain, enabling young children to learn. Early exposure to stories and books designs the neural networks for later achievement in language and mathematics. In combination, these inputs are the recipe for educational success and economic productivity.
Yet, as the South African Child Gauge 2017 shows, at least half of SA’s children miss out on one or more of these basic inputs. Still two-thirds live below the poverty line of R33 a day. A quarter of all children under five are nutritionally stunted, and half enter Grade R without the benefit of early learning programmes. By Grade 5, fewer than half (43%) can read basic stories with understanding.
The irony is that investment in young children costs less and returns more than any subsequent investment in human capital. For example, every rand spent on early learning will return at least R10 back to society. Preventing nutritional stunting has a similar rate of return.
Most high-growth countries have recognised the social and economic sense of investing in children. For example, China has rapidly expanded access to preschool education. Since 2010, the number of Chinese children attending preschool has increased from 45% to 75%. It would cost SA an extra R20bn a year to do the same — roughly half of what is mooted to provide free tertiary education. It’s an unpopular truth that the economic returns on two years of universal preschool would ultimately be far greater than the provision of free higher education.
Admittedly, these benefits will take years to accrue and will be eroded by the poor quality of public education. However, if we don’t start now, we will end up in 20 years’ time ruing the fact that our democracy failed because we did not invest public funds strategically.
At the same time, there is much that can be done now, quickly and affordably. For example, promoting breastfeeding is the key to preventing stunting in children under six-months of age, while a recent study from Ecuador suggests that eating an egg a day can reduce stunting significantly in older infants and toddlers. Civil society could work with the government to connect vulnerable children to expanded systems of care and support, and all children could be ready to read by the time they go to school. The economist Nic Spaull describes children’s inability to read as the biggest solveable problem in SA today.
These are not difficult solutions, aided by the amazing power of human biology. Our DNA is the basic blueprint for national productivity. Children are genetically programmed to flourish. If we invest in them, if we nurture their normal growth and development, we will discover a massive new source of economic power and social prosperity.
• Harrison is the CEO of the DG Murray Trust.
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