Fourth Industrial Revolution is not a silver bullet for an ill-prepared nation

Technology is lauded as a game changer for humans. It illustrates how the often complicated and impossible can be simplified and achieved. World Economic Forum chairman Klaus Schwab defines it as "the advent of cyber-physical systems involving entirely new capabilities for people and machines. The Fourth Industrial Revolution represents entirely new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even our human bodies."

At times, though, the excitement about technology and what it achieves can create the belief that it can be the panacea to most human problems. That belief can quickly become a societal belief.

Over the past eight months it’s been interesting to observe how talk about the Fourth Industrial Revolution has gained momentum in South African policy-making circles. Advanced technologies such as robotic arms, self-driving trucks, automation and mechanisation and 3D printing are not new to SA’s agriculture, manufacturing and mining. Some sectors of the economy were early adopters and have kept up with pace of change globally.

Business and finance journalist James Surowiecki wrote a clever article published in The New Yorker magazine in 2004. He explained concepts like "event time" and "clock time" coined by social psychologist Robert Levine. He suggested that cultures can be divided into those that live on "event time", where events are allowed to dictate people’s schedules, and those that live on "clock time", where people’s schedules dictate events. Unsurprisingly, countries that live on clock time are more successful economically.

SA needs a political class of clock time people — who will continue efforts to get the economic machine running again by staying the course and not being swept away by winds of new events. Levine says clock time people run things according to schedules; punctuality and completing a task are priorities. In clock countries, goals are set, implemented and completed on time before starting new ones — no jumping from one trend to the other simply because it’s the in-thing.

Event time people are dictated to by new events. Time is of no significance and task or project completion is determined by when the individual undertaking it believes it is done. Any developing or new event will easily be elevated above an existing one because events direct their work and lives. Event time countries, as the Surowiecki article demonstrated, do not follow a schedule or do not have one. He reported that "chronic lateness costs Ecuador $2.5bn a year".

In hyper-punctual countries like Japan, pedestrians walk fast, business transactions take place quickly and bank clocks are always accurate, Surowiecki wrote. In less punctual ones, such as Indonesia, pedestrians amble, workers dawdle and bank clocks are usually wrong.

Many people leading SA’s government seem to think that they will ride the wave of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and surf their way out of the structural constrictions of an economy that is not growing or solving its unemployment problems. In his state of the nation address, President Cyril Ramaphosa called on the country to "take full advantage [of] rapid technological change", followed by a proclamation that a digital industrial revolution commission will be established "to ensure that our country is in a position to seize the opportunities and manage the challenges of rapid advances in technology".

Given the political class’s penchant for grasping onto floating ideas and believing that they can apply them to SA, it is worth reminding them, just like Silicon Valley-inspired entrepreneurs incubation projects, that while the Fourth Industrial Revolution presents an opportunity for a few small businesses, it cannot be the absorb-and-solve-it-all one-stop shop

For those who have been paying attention, the hyping of the Fourth Industrial Revolution does not start with Ramaphosa. Within the corridors of some government departments there appears to be a messianic belief in its ability to change things.

While it presents many opportunities for advanced economies and some for emerging economies, this revolution will not fix the deeply rooted challenges of SA. It will not be the miracle performer the political class hopes it will be.

Any political leader who thinks that it can wondrously remedy and revive growth or create much-needed "job opportunities" (a trendy phrase in government speak) will be misguided and will reveal themselves as having failed to understand the country’s labour market, the economy’s capacity to absorb labour and the mismatch between the skills that exist and what the workplace needs.

Given the political class’s penchant for grasping onto floating ideas and believing that they can apply them to SA, it is worth reminding them, just like Silicon Valley-inspired entrepreneurs incubation projects, that while the Fourth Industrial Revolution presents an opportunity for a few small businesses, it cannot be the absorb-and-solve-it-all one-stop shop.

SA has medium-and low-skilled workers as well as semi-skilled members of the workforce — a legacy of apartheid policies inherited by the democratic government. It is, unfortunately, too entrenched to undo in 23 years, so the Fourth Industrial Revolution will not herald great things like it potentially can deliver to the labour markets of India, Germany and the Nordic countries.

The men and women leading SA’s policy development, and those advising executives in business, should not jump on the bandwagon simply because their political principals have climbed aboard. They should douse their excitement and collect empirical evidence of the economy, especially the structure of its labour market. During these deliberations, they should carefully examine the big picture, to anticipate and address challenges the Fourth Industrial Revolution may present.

History has taught that uncertainties plague governments that are quick to jump from one approach to another when trying to solve their country’s problems. It is basic economic fact that such an approach carries higher risks that can disrupt economic growth, progress and recovery.

SA cannot ignore or take for granted the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s impact on the world or its economy, nor can it base its vision on what’s to come while neglecting daily micro matters that can equally influence the country’s future.

What the political leaders must examine more closely is how advanced and emerging technologies will have a substantial impact on the workforce — such as potentially replacing low-or semi-skilled workers with machines and robots in the future.

The government’s proposed jobs summit must deliberate on what the revolution means for the labour market. Globally thus far, it has had bad and good effects on many industries and is redefining the meaning of work.

Understanding the revolution is crucial in preparing for its unavoidable changes — such as new industries that will create jobs that have never existed before. It is critical to have plans in place that will deal with issues such as workers who might be displaced when full automation is adopted on a broader scale in sectors of the economy, and how higher education will equip graduates with skills that will meet the requirements of new industries.

As companies adapt by embracing technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, so too must governments. Given SA’s challenges, now is the time for politicians who are clock time people to lead the discussion.

SA requires a forward-looking vision that will implement policies on schedule and on time while adapting and preparing for a process that will drastically alter the economy and citizens’ lives. The three previous industrial revolutions have taught that it is better to be a clock time country than being dragged along by event time — only to find yourself on the wrong side of the revolution.

• Molopyane is a research consultant and commentator on labour and mining matters. She recently completed a project on the future of workers in the era of automated machines in manufacturing and mining.