The ANC is in a classic death spiral — in continuous decline, yet repeating the same remedies over and over again, which will accelerate its decline further until it eventually loses power and is replaced by new players.
A death spiral often refers to the seemingly unstoppable decline of a company dominant for ages, when the company loses touch with its customer base but continues to repeat the same Band-Aid solutions rather than tackle the root cause of its decline.
Stuttafords, the 159-year-old “Harrods of SA”, was typical of the phenomenon when it closed shop in 2017 in the face of a shift in global retail to online, new nimble competition — and ultimately futile solutions to keep the business going.
The comedy Groundhog Day, released in 1993, perfectly describes the death spiral the ANC is locked in. In the movie, actor Bill Murray stars as Phil Connors, a TV weatherman who, while covering a popular traditional ceremony in the US, is trapped in a time warp, re-living the same day over and over again.
The party must stop blaming self-inflicted problems on outside conspiracies, take ownership of its actions and behave like a grown-up party
It’s the ANC’s Groundhog Day moment. Like many companies that once dominated their markets, the party is getting to the end of its cycle. It continues with the same window-dressing, which just continues the downward spiral.
To escape a death spiral an organisation must acknowledge that it needs to change, bring in new management and become more responsive to the changing market. Many influential ANC party bosses have not acknowledged the party is losing its market, that it has the wrong leadership and that its organisational culture is deformed.
As former president Jacob Zuma illustrated in his testimony to the Zondo commission this week, the problem is always elsewhere: white monopoly capital, devious conspiracies by unreconstructed white elites, and Western and apartheid spies.
The party must stop blaming self-inflicted problems on outside conspiracies, take ownership of its actions and behave like a grown-up party. The ANC is the governing party, not some opposition group, or still in exile or underground.
Many ANC leaders behave like high school or student politicians, with no sense of accountability, rather than grown-up politicians whose decisions daily determine whether people live or die, whether people go to bed hungry or not, and whether people lose or secure a job.
The ANC’s current crop of “managers”, the Zumas and Ace Magashules, lack the competence to oversee complex societal, economic and global change. The mindsets of many ANC leaders are stuck in the Cold War period when the world was divided into a Marxist-Leninist ideological camp led by the Soviet Union, and a Western liberal group led by the US.
The ANC’s language, customs and behaviour must become more resonant with those of its “customers” the people of SA. Empty slogans such as a “National Democratic Revolution” are yesteryear’s.
For an organisation to escape a death spiral, it must overhaul its whole leadership — bring in more competent management, fresh ideas and honesty.
To end a death spiral, organisations must cut off parts that are too costly to modernise. Ramaphosa will have to proactively prosecute, fire and push out corrupt leaders, forcing them to either break away or step into line.
A smaller ANC, without its corrupt, populist and opportunist factions, has a better chance of surviving. To change the DNA of the ANC, retain its dwindling supporters and restore confidence, Ramaphosa must increase the ANC’s governing coalition by bringing more outsiders into key positions.
In recycling the same leaders, keeping the Zumas in the party for the sake of “unity”, and repeating the same slogan-based Cold War solutions, the ANC is only postponing the party’s death for a little while longer.
• Gumede is associate professor in the School of Governance at Wits University, and author of South Africa in BRICS (Tafelberg).
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