Europe’s sorry experience of the Covid-19 pandemic has left one thing crystal clear: it’s an awful lot harder to get out of lockdown than into it. After about four months of near-normal life during summer in the northern hemisphere, European countries have experienced soaring infection and death rates, Britain’s among the worst.
Ignoring calls for decisive action from his scientific advisers, just as he did back in February/March and November, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went late into England’s third national lockdown earlier in January.
Without an effective system of universal testing and tracing for the virus — such as South Korea or Taiwan, for instance — putting the virus “back in its box”, as Johnson trumpeted, has proved impossible. He has been caught out by a cavalier attitude to truth and detail.
His ministers’ preoccupation with dominating the news agenda has produced a chasm between headline-grabbing rhetoric and reality, surpassed only by Donald Trump. Why, for example, does Germany, a similar north European country with an even larger population, have so many fewer deaths and infections than the UK, which has one of the worst records?
The answer is that Germany invested in its local care and health systems, empowering them to track, trace and isolate, whereas Britain has tried to superimpose an entirely new centralised system outsourced to private providers such as Deloitte, which has no experience of attempting anything like that.
Meanwhile, pandemic historian Mark Honigsbaum has analysed the 1918, 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics and argues that they don’t end easily or quickly, certainly not without a forensic, locally based network for testing and tracing. It seems there is no easy answer except to isolate cases and quarantine close contacts, obey social or physical distancing, wear masks, rigorously practise hand hygiene and protect those who are most at risk of serious illness or death if they are infected, mainly the vulnerable and elderly.
If Africa is looking for examples of how to manage the complex issues of getting life and the economy back up and running again during Covid-19, don’t follow Britain — except mostly for what not to do. And for good leadership, don’t look to the self-styled strong men of the world — Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Jair Bolsonaro. Instead try three women: New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Germany’s Angela Merkel, who without bombast or ego have been decisive and effective.
Almost a year into near global lockdown, many countries are still grappling with strategies to exit. The UK and many other countries’ lockdown exit strategies now hinge on mass immunisation with one of the new blockbuster vaccines from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna and Janssen.
The Johnson administration’s failure to effectively manage track-and-trace or mass compliance with social-distancing measures has led to the prime minister now betting everything on the vaccine as the route to economic and social recovery.
As at the time of writing about 1.5-million British people have been immunised since Margaret Keenan became the first person in the country to be given the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on December 8. At this rate the UK will only have immunised its entire population in three years’ time. The army has therefore been recruited to increase capacity.
Even with the army and pharmacies supporting the National Health Service in the immunisation rollout, the UK still has a long road of lockdowns and economic damage ahead. Even if it managed to immunise 5-million people a month — highly unlikely given the government’s track record in the pandemic — that would still mean the country could think about reopening only by June.
The goal of easing the UK’s lockdown by March seems unrealistic indeed. But let’s assume the government got on top of the immunisation drive and a staggered opening was possible at some point in the second quarter, and that several other countries concurrently managed their immunisation rollout so that travel could resume. What kind of world awaits us then?
We certainly shouldn’t pretend the model we had before — of global warming, inequality, inefficiency, presenteeism and over-consumption — was an economy that worked for everyone. So what can be done and how can we rebuild differently?
Economists, scientists, health ministries and policymakers worldwide are still for the most part grappling with the puzzle of how to get the global economy moving again without accelerating infections and deaths, or worse being faced with a possibly more deadly wave.
Hopes are resting on these ground-breaking vaccines, possibly in conjunction with mass enrolment into immunity passport schemes and contact tracing apps. But could it be that there are several pioneering routes to economic recovery that are already plain to see?
The rallying call for the post-Covid-19 global economy has been to “build back better”. The idea of a Global New Green Deal doesn’t seem so fanciful, with leaders such as the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva calling for a “Great Reset”. Georgieva wants to see the fiscal stimulus that has been extended thus far for recovery lead to a “greener, fairer and smarter” world. She believes governments should act now to put in place public investment into low-carbon growth, with digitally equitable and socially inclusive initiatives to achieve this. This is particularly urgent given that the lockdown has emphasised the faultlines of global inequality.
Employment shifts
Further, employment needs to be completely overhauled. Many workers in formal employment have found lockdown beneficial for mental and physical wellbeing. If social distancing will remain in place for the next 12 months or so, the willingness of workers who can do so to work from home, or stagger their work days and be productive while doing so, will be crucial or transport systems and workplaces will be unsafe.
Employment figures could also rebound if jobs were shared, or more people worked fewer hours. Several companies experimented with four-day weeks prepandemic, with impressive effects on productivity and wellbeing.
Finally, the amount of fiscal stimulus unleashed by governments globally to support wages and small and medium-sized enterprises has shown that the money taps can be turned on when needed, and this has only strengthened arguments that a universal basic income is both affordable and essential. A universal wage scheme could top up the wages of an increased number of people in employment on lower wages, while providing a safety net for the unemployed and key economic sectors.
The main barrier to realising the ideal of a greener, fairer and smarter world are the same globally. In the first instance, the most important factor that will determine if the sustainable development goals are met and whether economies grow in ways that are fair to everyone is political will.
Without political will it is impossible to legislate and implement targeted investments and create the momentum and capital for streamlined reporting, investor relations and capacity building in sustainable finance and economic development.
In sum, as we navigate out of lockdown worldwide we should also be asking what kind of world we want to return to, and also be accountable for the individual and collective action to support immunisation, social distancing and economic stimulus.
These have been tough times, but with optimism and collaboration, an inclusive, sustainable, digital global economy is already within touching distance.
• Lord Hain, a former anti-apartheid leader and British cabinet minister, chairs IC Intelligence. Dr Masie is chief strategist for IC Intelligence and a fellow of the Wits School of Governance.
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