Futureworld brings you Mindbullets: News from the Future, to spark strategic thinking about leadership, innovation and digital disruption. These fictitious scenarios aim to challenge conventional mindsets and promote understanding of the future context for business.
Dateline: August 8 2032
A decade ago, Shanghai scientists completed testing of a prototype small nuclear reactor using thorium as fuel and molten salt as the coolant. Now the first commercial power plant using this technology has been connected to China’s grid.
Though small by traditional nuclear reactor standards, at 100MW the new plant can power up to 100,000 homes, and more importantly, will serve as baseload stability for solar farms in the area. And because it uses molten salt rather than water for cooling the reactor and heating the steam turbines, the power station can be situated in the desert rather than on the coast.
Thorium is abundant in China, and mildly radioactive in its natural form. It is considered safer than uranium for nuclear energy, as in the case of an accident the molten fuel would simply cool down and solidify, and not escape into the environment. Thorium also cannot be used for nuclear weapons, and China has great plans for offering “green” nuclear power to other countries involved in its “Belt and Road” initiative.
To reach its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, China has been building solar plants and wind farms at an incredible pace, but needs baseload power to balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy. Hundreds of coal-fired power stations across China have already been shuttered, with more to come in the next decade.
“There’s only so much you can do with lithium batteries,” said Prof Yan of the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, who designed the reactor. “We need these small nukes now, more than ever.”
One question remains: will the harsh, corrosive nature of radioactive molten salt at 1,000°C limit the useful life of the reactor’s piping, or will modern materials be up to the task? Only the future knows.
Date published: August 5 2021
China leads the green decade
Beijing boasts the best air quality in Asia
Dateline: June 12 2032
Once the biggest polluter in the world, China now has the enviable position of being ranked as the cleanest and greenest of all large, industrialised economies. The “airpocalypse”, Beijing’s notoriously thick grey smog, has been permanently eradicated, and the sky above Tiananmen Square is clear and blue.
With many cities banning petrol and diesel cars, and nations aiming for “net zero” emissions in the next 10 years, this has been called the Green Decade. Investments in coal and oil have collapsed, and even natural gas — the cleanest of all fossil fuels — has fallen out of favour. Both climate change and real pollution are hot issues on the global stage.
China, the world’s workshop and now the biggest economy, has been able to enforce draconian regulations against water and air pollution, permanently shutting down whole industrial conglomerates that don’t comply. Admittedly, their targets for net zero are far in the future, but China is saving a fortune in health-care costs, since city air became safe to breathe again.
China is the biggest manufacturer of electric cars, which are wildly popular domestically, and strong sellers internationally. China also dominates the production of solar panels, and has more renewable energy capacity than any country on the planet. In the past, developed countries who outsourced their manufacturing to China were simply exporting their pollution. Now China is the leading exporter of solar cells and batteries, and has the cleanest and most productive factories in the world.
While environmentalists and activists have long been campaigning for China to clean up its act, visionaries such as Xi Jinping could see the benefits of clean air and water for national harmony and productivity. And having a green reputation has helped China ascend to leadership in the international arena, both politically and economically. For now, America is playing second fiddle.
Ultimately it wasn’t the efforts of eco-warriors like Greta, or virtue-signalling contracts like the Paris Agreement, that changed Beijing’s course. It was simple economics; cheaper, cleaner, better was a winning formula for China, and the world.
Date published: June 10 2021
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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